The Federal Reserve has a 99% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in April; participate in Polymarket predictions with one click on the Gate platform.

Currently, global macro traders are focusing on the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for April 28-29. According to data from CME’s “FedWatch” tool as of April 20, market pricing shows only a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in April, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates steady. This data aligns closely with the pricing on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket—in the “How will the Fed’s April rate decision change?” prediction event, the probability of no change is also as high as 99%. The cross-validation of these two mainstream tools points to a clear conclusion: the market almost unanimously expects the Federal Funds Rate target range to remain at 3.50% to 3.75% in April.

Inflation Data “Rebound Overall, Core Moderates”

The Fed’s confidence in “holding steady” stems from the latest inflation data showing divergence. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data on April 10 indicating that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-over-year in March, the highest since May 2024; core CPI, excluding energy and food, increased 2.6% YoY, only slightly up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Energy prices are the main driver of this inflation rebound—gasoline prices surged 21% month-over-month in March, fuel oil prices skyrocketed 31%, jointly pushing the overall CPI up 0.9% MoM. However, core inflation did not spiral out of control; March core CPI rose only 0.2% MoM, below market expectations of 0.3%. Analysts point out that this combination of “overall inflation rebound, moderate core inflation” provides ample reason for the Fed to stay on the sidelines—allowing it to continue waiting for more economic data and observe whether energy shocks will further feed into core inflation.

Prediction Markets as a “Barometer” of Macro Consensus

Notably, Polymarket and CME FedWatch both provide highly consistent probability pricing on the same event. The prediction contract on Polymarket regarding the April FOMC has accumulated over $82.7 million in trading volume across three outcome options, with the “no change” result locked in at a 99.05% probability.

Prediction markets are moving from the fringe to the mainstream. According to Dune Analytics, the number of monthly users in the prediction market is up 118% YoY as of March 2026, with nominal trading volume approaching $23.89 billion. Bernstein forecasts that by 2030, the annual trading volume of prediction markets will reach about $1 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 80%. Even more noteworthy, the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company ICE completed a $1.6 billion investment in Polymarket in March, gaining exclusive distribution rights for event-driven data—accelerating mainstream financial recognition and the explosive growth of this sector.

Trump Continues Pressure for Rate Cuts

Although a rate hold in April has become consensus, political variables surrounding the Fed’s future policy path continue to ferment. On April 15, U.S. President Trump publicly stated he hopes his nominee for Fed Chair, Kevin W. W. W. W. W., will lower rates after taking office, and threatened to dismiss Powell if he remains after his term ends. Powell’s chairmanship concludes on May 15, a key date that could serve as a turning point for policy direction.

Currently, Fed officials generally believe that, given inflation remains above the 2% target, rate cuts are unwise. CICC macro predicts the Fed will not cut rates this year, with the next cut possibly in early 2027. CME data shows the market expects only a 4.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June, with a 95% probability of rates remaining unchanged. The political and monetary policy tug-of-war is becoming a key variable influencing market trends in the second half of the year.

Macro Implications of a Rate Hold

If the Fed maintains rates as scheduled on April 29, it will be the third consecutive meeting choosing to hold steady. For investors, a rate pause implies stable market liquidity conditions and potentially supports risk appetite. Asset classes including U.S. stocks and commodities are likely to benefit from this window, attracting incremental capital inflows.

Gate, as one of the most comprehensive traditional asset class trading platforms online, offers prediction and trading access across stocks, commodities, and other assets, providing users with abundant investment options amid macro shifts.

Gate First to Integrate Polymarket, One-Click Participation in Global Event Predictions

For users wishing to directly participate in the “Fed April Rate Decision” prediction event, Gate offers the most convenient entry currently available. In March 2026, Gate officially integrated with Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, becoming the first centralized exchange (CEX) to incorporate the platform, serving over 52 million users.

Users can access prediction markets directly through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page via the “Alpha” section on the homepage. Using USDT in their exchange account, they can participate in event predictions without managing complex Web3 wallets, cross-chain bridges, or paying Gas fees. Gate innovatively introduces a “Prediction Mode + Trading Mode” dual architecture—Prediction Mode visually displays “Yes/No” probabilities and odds, suitable for beginners; Trading Mode offers order books, K-line charts, and other professional tools to meet the strategic needs of advanced traders. After event settlement, winnings are automatically converted 1:1 into stablecoins and transferred to spot accounts, ensuring an “as you see it” experience.

Summary

In summary, as of April 20, both CME FedWatch and Polymarket show that the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in April exceeds 99%, indicating a high market consensus. March CPI data reveals a divergence: “overall inflation rebound, moderate core inflation,” providing sufficient reason for the Fed to continue observing. Holding rates steady helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, likely attracting investment in stocks and commodities. Under the influence of ongoing political pressure for rate cuts from Trump and the approaching end of Powell’s term, future policy paths remain uncertain.

As the first CEX integrated with Polymarket, Gate provides users with a straightforward portal to participate directly in global event predictions like the “Fed April Rate Decision” within the exchange—no extra wallets, no Gas fees, just USDT to participate with one click. Whether you are a trader seeking to capture macro consensus or an investor interested in the emerging prediction market sector, Gate offers an open, diverse market participation experience. Open the Gate App now, explore Polymarket via the “Alpha” section on the homepage, and use your judgment to engage in global hot event predictions.