Recently, someone has been claiming that "the supply of stablecoins has increased = ETF off-exchange funds are coming in" as an ironclad rule. It sounds a bit familiar to me: I used to justify it to myself that way too, but then I got educated when I leveraged up. An increase in supply might just be exchanges preparing reserves, market-making demand, or even on-chain transfers, and isn't necessarily related to "incremental funds." The cycle of rumors about regulation, reserve audits, and de-pegging talk has started again, and when emotions run high, people tend to treat correlation as causation. For now, I’m just watching my own capital curve, keeping my position small, and not replacing risk management with stories.