4.20 Bitcoin and Ethereum Outlook

The current market is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, showing a volatile and downward-biased pattern overall. Daily trading strategies should focus on high sell-offs and low buy-ins, with flexible trading and strict risk management.

1. Escalation of geopolitical conflicts cools market risk sentiment
The ongoing escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions has increased safe-haven demand globally, putting pressure on risk assets. As a high-risk asset, Bitcoin's short-term trend is significantly affected by risk aversion.

2. Rising oil prices trigger inflation concerns; Fed rate cut expectations delayed, causing a sharp increase in international oil prices, further intensifying global inflation worries. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut continue to be postponed, and tightening macroeconomic monetary conditions suppress upward potential.

3. Large options expirations are imminent, increasing market volatility
From April 24-25, a large volume of options will expire simultaneously, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears. The market is likely to experience significant fluctuations afterward, so be alert to sudden market changes.

4. Technical indicators show a clear bearish trend, with heavy selling pressure above
Moving averages on the chart display a bearish alignment, with multiple resistance levels above exerting strong pressure. Bullish rebounds are weak, making it difficult to form a strong reversal in the short term.

Overall trading strategy: Volatile and biased downward, sell high and buy low, operate with light positions

If the price retraces to the 73,300-74,000 range and stabilizes without further decline, try small long positions, aiming for around 76,000.

If a rebound reaches near 76,000 and faces resistance, consider short positions, first targeting 73,000, then further down to 70,000.