U.S.-Iran Situation Latest Trend Analysis (Combined with April 10 Preview)

April 10 article clearly predicted: the U.S.-Iran relationship will show a pattern of negotiations without breakdown, surface toughness, and behind-the-scenes tacit understanding, centered around election pressure, the Strait of Hormuz, and the battle over the petrodollar. Based on the latest news, the situation is largely unfolding along this script, with the pace and statements becoming more intense, but not deviating from the core logic.

1. The current situation fully confirms "Prioritize elections, negotiate without breaking"

Negotiations have not truly broken down, still progressing in a delaying manner
Although no formal agreement has been reached in Islamabad, both sides have maintained communication channels, with recent technical and indirect talks ongoing, and have not completely moved toward full-scale war. The core demand of the Trump administration remains to prevent conflict from spiraling out of control and impacting the midterm elections. Military pressure and tough rhetoric are mainly for election campaigning and bargaining chips, not genuine intent to start a full-scale war.
Iran maintains a tough stance but does not proactively escalate
Iran appears to refuse some talks and uses Strait navigation as a countermeasure, but essentially it is raising its demands to seek sanctions relief and more oil export space, not choosing to fully ignite conflict, consistent with the judgment of "knowing when to stop and securing real benefits" in the article.
Military actions are all deterrence, not decisive war
U.S. naval blockade, Iran's localized counterattacks, and Israeli peripheral harassment are all displays of posture supporting negotiations, with no signs of full-scale war determination or deployment, fully aligning with the "posture without war" forecast.

2. Future trend + corresponding BTC/ETH range (current prices: BTC 74,340, ETH 2,275)

Short-term (within 1 week)
Both sides continue to fight and negotiate, delaying for change, sending tough signals externally, and reassuring public opinion internally. No complete breakdown or resolution will occur. Market risk sentiment fluctuates, increasing volatility.
BTC range: 72,800–76,500
ETH range: 2,220–2,420

Medium-term (1–4 weeks, midterm election window)
The U.S. aims to stabilize oil prices and Strait navigation for the elections; Iran seeks sanctions relief and more oil export space. Ultimately, the situation remains without formal agreements but with private tacit understanding, balancing the interests. Risk sentiment temporarily recovers, and volatility shifts upward.
BTC range: 75,000–79,000
ETH range: 2,380–2,550

Long-term (1–3 months)
Surface confrontation with behind-the-scenes coexistence, with the petrodollar and Strait control still at the core, and uranium enrichment issues continuing as a surface pretext. After the situation de-escalates, the crypto market will return to its own fundamentals and technical aspects.
$BTC range: 78,000–83,000
$ETH range: 2,500–2,750

3. Continued impact on the crypto market
The situation has not worsened beyond expectations nor eased beyond expectations; the market remains in a oscillating pattern of risk aversion and risk appetite switching. Since full-scale war has not occurred, the crypto market does not have a basis for sustained sharp decline; nor has a substantive peace been reached, so a unilateral big rise is also unlikely. Overall, the market continues to fluctuate within ranges.
#美伊冲突再起引发市场动荡