A more cautious tone is starting to show.

Gulf markets opened softer, even with headlines suggesting some progress between the U.S. and Iran, which tells you investors aren’t fully buying into a clean resolution.
The initial ceasefire optimism is fading, and the focus is shifting back to what actually matters, the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran tightening control again, the risk to energy flows is still very real, and regional markets are reflecting that.
Saudi equities and Qatar both went slightly lower, nothing dramatic, but enough to show that local investors aren’t pricing in full de-escalation. That matters because they’re closer to the risk, and their reaction often leads.
After the recent relief rally, global markets leaned toward a more optimistic view, but this kind of price action suggests that might be too early. If regional hesitation continues, broader markets remain vulnerable to any new headlines around energy or shipping.
And this ties directly into the macro backdrop, energy uncertainty feeds into transport and logistics costs, which are already showing up in inflation, while growth isn’t strong enough to absorb it cleanly.
However, I don't see this as a reason to panic, because like I've said over the last couple of days, a short-term cooldown was imminent to happen, after the longest 'up-only' streak Nasdaq has had in over 30 years.
That said, it remains a risk that we have to pay attention to. So I broke this down in much more detail in the full Macro Regime report here: