#Gate13周年现场直击 One night of liquidation for 190k people, is there still hope for the crypto world?

Last night and this morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a "small earthquake." Bitcoin briefly fell below $75k, Ethereum dropped to around $2,300, with over $300 million in liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours, and more than 190k investor accounts went to zero. The fear and greed index is firmly stuck in the "extreme fear" zone.
Who is the culprit?
The Middle East geopolitical conflict escalated—Strait of Hormuz tensions tightened, oil prices surged, global inflation expectations rose, and cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, bore the brunt. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's probability of rate cuts in June has dropped to nearly zero, and the high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress risk asset valuations.

But the paradox is: retail investors are fleeing, while institutions are quietly accumulating.
Investment banks like TD Cowen still target a year-end price of $140k, citing the "digital gold" inflation hedge logic unchanged. JPMorgan Chase and Standard Chartered also maintain forecasts in the $140,000 to $170k range. This stark contrast highlights that the market is at a critical point of a battle between bulls and bears.
Deep analysis: three signals tell you where the bottom is.
First, on-chain data shows a "divergence from gold mining."
Ethereum's mainnet daily transaction volume hit a record high, but the price was cut in half from its peak. This "fundamentals up, price down" divergence often signals a mid-term bottom in history. Smart money has already started shifting from Bitcoin ETFs to Ethereum ETFs, with three consecutive days of net inflows as clear evidence. Second, funding rates have fallen to their lowest since 2023.
Perpetual contract funding rates turning negative indicate crowded short positions. Any positive news could trigger short covering and a short squeeze, often very intense.
Historical data shows that whenever funding rates drop to current levels, Bitcoin's average rebound within 30 days exceeds 15%.
Third, the correlation with Nasdaq drops below 0.1.
Bitcoin is moving out of its independent trend and no longer simply follows US stocks. This means geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations have replaced liquidity expectations as the new core drivers. If Yellen's warning of "malignant inflation" truly materializes, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative will be reactivated.
In the short term, $73k is Bitcoin's last line of defense; in the medium term, after Ethereum breaks through $2,385, the technical target is directly aimed at $2,900.
Extreme panic often marks the darkest night before dawn.
The blood and tears of 190k liquidated traders remind us: do not overestimate your risk tolerance, and never gamble with leverage. The market remains highly volatile; staying rational and controlling your positions is more important than anything else.