rsETH Loss Distribution Path Game: Possibly prioritize securing the main network, transferring risk to L2

Wu said he learned that DeFi strategy analyst monetsupply.eth stated that the final loss allocation for the rsETH incident has not yet been determined, but market expectations lean toward the view that Aave is more likely to first protect the Ethereum mainnet from write-downs (zero haircut), concentrating losses on L2 and external chains; ultimately, that decision will be made by the Kelp DAO team and through the legal process.

If the mainnet does not share the losses, Aave Core’s market impact will be limited due to the Umbrella insurance module and the DAO treasury backstop mechanism, and treasury assets can be preserved. However, chains such as Base, Arbitrum, and Mantle have relatively large rsETH collateral volumes (approximately $71 million, $152 million, and $116 million respectively), which may face higher bad-debt pressure, directly affecting WETH providers and related stablecoin markets.

By contrast, if losses are socialized across the entire chain, the shock can be absorbed jointly through insurance and collateral assets, reducing concentrated risk and systemic spillover pressure on external chains.