Recently, I saw someone say that "increasing stablecoin supply = the bull is coming" as if it were a formula... I prefer to think of it as a thermometer, not an engine. The same goes for ETFs; inflows don't necessarily mean all new money—some are just off-exchange channels or old funds moving around. In short, the correlation is quite strong, but don't mistake it for causation.

Looking on-chain, I saw a large address splitting USDC into several transactions to the exchange, while also swapping ETH back into stablecoins on DEX, as if doing a position hedge rather than "charging forward." These details are more useful than a screenshot of a single curve.

By the way, hardware wallets are sold out, yet many people still click on phishing links... When hype rises, the first to increase are often scammers' KPIs. Anyway, I now treat airdrops and whitelists as fake—better to miss out than fall for it. That's how I do it for now.