Sudden Loss of 250 Million! Has ETH's Critical Defense Line Held? Is the Daily Bottom Divergence of BTC Real or Fake?

2026.04.19 Market Review
“The market won't keep rising forever, nor will it keep falling. The key is to find the point of structural change, so your funds can only be bet on the side with high probability and proper structure. The rest is about controlling your hands and waiting for your segment of the trend.”
Welcome to Lao Zhang's Trading Notes. Let's officially start tonight's review!
Today’s market, after the noise, has fallen into a subtle balance. Big Brother hovers around 75,900, while Second Brother seeks support at 2,337. The defense line set yesterday—Big Brother’s 74,500 and Second Brother’s 2,300—still remains unbroken. Although the structure is intact, beneath the surface, dark currents surge due to a sudden event.
Today's news has an unfortunate update: KelpDAO was attacked, losing about $250 million of Second Brother’s assets. This news directly impacted market sentiment, becoming an important factor behind Second Brother’s relatively weak performance today.
Big Brother Review: Bottom Divergence Emerges, Structural Repair Underway
From an SMC structure perspective, Big Brother’s chart shows a contradictory unity:
* Positive Signal: On the daily chart, a bottom divergence appears where price makes a new low but momentum indicators do not confirm a new low. In the SMC framework, this is a potential sign of weakening downward momentum and possible structural repair.
* Existing Pressure: On smaller timeframes (15-minute), there is a bearish divergence, indicating short-term selling pressure; the daily SAR indicator still acts as resistance.
* Market Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index is deep in “Extreme Fear.” In the SMC game theory, this often means the market’s pessimism has been largely released.

Core Judgment: The large-scale downward structure is potentially failing, but a true bullish reversal requires a clear small-scale structural change signal for confirmation. Currently, support around 74,500-75,000 forms the foundation for bulls to mount a counterattack.

Second Brother Review: Holding Firm Amid Event Shock
Second Brother faced additional pressure today. The KelpDAO incident triggered market concerns, causing its trend to weaken relative to Big Brother, and some liquidation occurred in the derivatives market.
However, from a pure structural perspective:
* Support Not Broken: Despite pressure, prices still hold above the 2,300 key structural bottom. This indicates the previous breakout structure has not been completely destroyed.
* Nature of the Event: Such hacking incidents tend to cause intense but short-term emotional shocks. The SMC framework focuses more on price behavior in key supply and demand zones rather than the news itself.
* Structure Still Intact: The 4-hour trend skeleton remains unbroken, but a stabilization is urgently needed to restore market confidence.

Long-Short Decision Framework: Signals Are More Important Than Direction
Currently, the market is at a crossroads of tug-of-war between bulls and bears in a key zone. The core of SMC is “following the structure confirmed by capital flow,” not guessing. Therefore, strategies should prepare for both possibilities.

Bullish Scenario (Northbound)
Big Brother: Entry Zone: 74,800 - 75,200 (demand zone edge)
• Confirmation Signal: 15-minute trend turns up + volume rebound
• Stop Loss: 74,200 (structure broken)
• Targets: First target 77,000, second target 78,300

Second Brother: Entry Zone: 2,300 - 2,330 (demand zone)
• Confirmation Signal: 15-minute trend turns up + hacker event impact recedes
• Stop Loss: 2,250 (structure broken)
• Targets: First target 2,450, second target 2,550

Logic: After support is established in the demand zone, wait for the market to send a micro-structure signal indicating bulls are reasserting dominance. This follows the “retest after pullback” logic.