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4.19 Macroeconomics
The ongoing US-Iran conflict for several months remains a significant obstacle to risk assets, and the two-week ceasefire negotiations will also end on 4.22. The second round of negotiations has no clear timeline due to issues such as Iran's claim that "Trump repeatedly violated the agreement" and disagreements over the framework of the agreement. U.S. President Trump has repeatedly claimed on social media that there has been very effective communication with Iran, and an agreement may be reached in the coming days (around the weekend to next Monday). Market volatility continues to be driven by geopolitical factors, and the direction and outlook remain uncertain; traders should closely monitor the latest developments in US-Iran negotiations.
The likelihood of reaching a final agreement in the second round of negotiations is not high, but Pakistan's involvement and potential updates on a joint framework for the agreement may lead to an extension of the ceasefire, paving the way for a final deal.