Analyst: The Bitcoin derivatives market is dominated by bears, with bulls continuously facing liquidation pressure

ME News Report, April 3rd (UTC+8), CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, “The Bitcoin position index is a comprehensive indicator measuring the degree of aggressive long/short positions in the derivatives market, reflecting the current actual opening direction of futures market participants. The 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) of this index reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17th when Bitcoin’s price was $73,925, then continued to decline, and today has fallen to -3.1. This indicates a continued accumulation of short positions. During the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d moving downward in sync with the market price, further confirming a weakening market structure. The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued to rise, reaching 18.6% today. This means the market is experiencing ongoing forced liquidations on the long side, preventing structural recovery. The red bars indicating short liquidation dominance have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains high and the prominent red bars do not return, the pressure on long positions will persist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it will be the first signal that liquidation balance is beginning to recover. The reversal of these two indicators occurs simultaneously and mutually confirms each other. Bitcoin’s price has already declined about 11% from the peak of $74,883. Currently, the derivatives market structure shows no support for a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs are continuously liquidated, and short squeeze scenarios are almost absent. Current operational stance: risk avoidance. The main downside risk is: if forced liquidation pressure persists and the position SMA-30d remains below zero, the bearish pattern will further solidify, and the downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price breaking below $66,000 will intensify.” (Source: ODAILY)