English Translation:The crypto market is currently (April 2026) in a volatile adjustment phase transitioning between bull and bear, leaning more toward the early bear market or late-stage bull market correction, rather than a full bull or deep bear market. Bitcoin (BTC) is fluctuating around $74,000 (recently rebounding from about $70,000, briefly touching near $75,000), down roughly 40-45% from its October 2025 all-time high of about $126,000. Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around $2,300-$2,400, with the total crypto market cap oscillating in the $2.3-2.5 trillion range.Current Crypto Market Status AnalysisNot a pure bull market: Under the traditional 4-year halving cycle, the post-2024 halving peak occurred in 2025 (October), and 2026 is entering the bear leg. Many analysts believe the bull market top is already in, and the market is in a "post-bubble correction" or "bottom-building" phase. Sentiment indicators (like the Fear & Greed Index) have dropped to "Extreme Fear" levels (around 12), reflecting low retail enthusiasm.

Signs of rebound, but not strong: Bitcoin surged over 5% in mid-April, driven by institutional ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and easing Middle East geopolitical tensions. Some view this as the start of an "independent bull trend" or continuation of the bull market's second half (selective bull, led by Bitcoin). However, it lacks the euphoria of previous years, and altcoins are performing even weaker.
Institutional influence: Unlike past cycles, institutions (ETFs, corporate holdings) have increased market resilience, potentially making drops less severe than in 2022 (current drawdown ~45% vs. historical bear markets often >77%). High stablecoin liquidity and improving regulatory clarity are positive factors.
How Long Until the Bull Market (or Next Major Rally) Arrives?Short-term (2026): The mainstream view is weak and choppy, with possible continued consolidation or mild pullbacks. Optimists say breaking $78k-$80k resistance could restart bullish momentum, targeting $80k-$100k or higher; pessimists warn of retesting $50k-$60k support, or even a prolonged bear. Liquidity improvements (rate cut expectations) after April could bring a staged rebound, but not a straight-line bull.
Medium-term (2026-2028): Cycle-focused analysts see 2026 as a bear year, with the next true major bull market starting around the 2028 halving. However, the "cycle is dead" narrative is growing—institutional capital and macro liquidity (Fed policy) may extend or flatten cycles, potentially creating a "spring in the bear market" in late 2026 if conditions loosen.
High divergence: Some institutions forecast BTC in the $60k-$100k range by end-2026; aggressive bulls still eye $150k-$250k but have lowered targets. Overall, it's "cautiously constructive" rather than euphoric.