#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈 Considering the current core demands, military deployments, domestic political environment, and international mediation efforts of the US and Iran, three scenarios are predicted for the future course of the conflict, along with corresponding analyses of their impact on the gold market:

(1) Baseline Scenario: Limited conflict persists, with a pattern of alternating between fighting and negotiations
Core judgment: Neither side has the willingness or capability for full-scale war; a temporary ceasefire agreement is likely to be extended in the short term, but core conflicts cannot be resolved quickly. The US military’s maritime blockade and sanctions against Iran will continue, with small-scale military frictions and diplomatic spat ongoing. The situation will remain in a long-term pattern of “de-escalation - escalation - de-escalation again - escalation again,” without full-scale war or substantive reconciliation.
Impact on gold trends: Gold prices will remain in a high-range, wide-fluctuation pattern, with geopolitical events causing only short-term pulses, unable to alter the medium-term trend dominated by Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations. The core oscillation range for USD-denominated gold is $4,600–$5,000 per ounce, and for RMB-denominated gold is 1020–1100 yuan per gram. The market will continue to see repeated trading fluctuations and marginal changes in the Fed’s interest rate path.
(2) Optimistic Scenario: Long-term ceasefire agreement is implemented, and the situation substantially eases
Core judgment: Under domestic legal constraints like the War Powers Act and political pressure from the US election cycle, and Iran’s domestic economic pressures from long-term sanctions, both sides reach a long-term ceasefire agreement through third-party mediation. The US gradually relaxes its blockade of Iranian ports, resumes comprehensive negotiations on Iran’s nuclear issue, and regional conflict spillover risks are significantly reduced. The Middle East enters a phase of stability.
Impact on gold trends: Geopolitical risk premiums will fully dissipate, and gold prices face a phase of correction. USD-denominated gold may fall back to the $4,400–$4,600 per ounce range, and RMB-denominated gold may fall back to 980–1020 yuan per gram. Gold trends will fully revert to the dominant framework of Fed monetary policy expectations, real US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index.
(3) Pessimistic Scenario: Negotiations break down, and conflict escalates fully
Core judgment: The core demands of both sides are completely opposed in ceasefire negotiations; sudden military incidents cause conflict to spiral out of control. Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the US launches large-scale military strikes on Iran’s territory, regional conflicts spill over extensively, and multiple fronts such as Lebanon and Yemen erupt simultaneously. The global energy supply chain faces rupture risks, with inflation spiraling out of control and the risk of a global recession greatly increasing.
Impact on gold trends: Safe-haven sentiment will dominate the market entirely, and gold will enter a new round of unilateral upward movement. USD-denominated gold is highly likely to break through the historical high of $5,200 per ounce, aiming for the $5,500 mark. RMB-denominated gold will also break through 1,150 yuan per gram, setting new historical highs, becoming a core safe-haven asset for global funds.