April 18, 2026 Ethereum Market Analysis and Contract Strategy Recommendations

I. Overall Market Analysis

1. Weekly Level (Chart 1): Long-term trend is bearish, with short-term signs of rebound
- Pattern: The weekly candle just closed with a long lower shadow, and the current price (2358.24) is below multiple moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20), indicating a correction phase after a downtrend.
- Moving Averages: Price has broken below MA20 (2473.04), currently under long-term resistance from MA30 (2892.35) and MA60 (2885.71).
- MACD: The green histogram (bearish momentum) is shrinking, and the fast and slow lines are flattening at low levels, suggesting weakening long-term downward momentum but no bullish crossover yet.

2. Daily Level: Short-term correction, key support testing
- Pattern: After a rally (peak at 2463.86), the daily chart shows a pullback today. The large red candle (-3.60%) directly broke below MA5 (2360.57).
- Key Levels: First support below is near MA10 (2307.90), strong support at MA20 (2208.24).
- MACD: The fast and slow lines remain above zero, but the red momentum bars are weakening, even turning green, indicating bullish strength is waning and a short-term correction is imminent.

3. 4-Hour Level: Bearish dominance, moving average death cross
- Pattern: A clear short-term downtrend structure. Price has fallen from the high of 2463, breaking all short-term moving averages.
- Moving Averages: MA5 has a death cross with MA10 and MA20, forming a bearish alignment. Currently, the price (2358.13) is well below MA20 (2364.29) and MA30 (2355.68), indicating heavy selling pressure.
- MACD: The fast and slow lines are crossing downward near zero, with increasing green bars, suggesting ongoing correction at the 4-hour level.

4. 1-Hour Level: Oversold rebound demand but weak strength
- Pattern: The 1-hour chart shows a sharp decline, with the price now oscillating at low levels.
- Moving Averages: Price is suppressed by MA5, MA10, and MA20, in a clear bearish channel.
- MACD: The green bars are still present but shrinking, and the fast and slow lines are turning at low levels, hinting at a possible minor technical rebound, though the overall trend remains downward.

II. Core Conclusions

Current market sentiment: Extremely weak in the short term, with medium-term direction uncertain.

- Bearish factors: Large daily red candle, 4-hour moving averages in a bearish arrangement, and a chart top showing a “main force has placed a $34.29 million sell order,” indicating significant overhead selling pressure.
- Bullish factors: Weekly chart has a long lower shadow support, and daily MA10 (2307) has strong buying support.

III. Today’s Contract Strategy Recommendations

Overall approach: Primarily follow the trend to short, with supplementary shorting on rebounds, cautiously aiming for oversold rebounds.

Since a large daily red candle has just appeared, inertia suggests further decline; avoid blindly bottom-fishing.

Strategy A: Rebound Short (Preferred Strategy)
- Logic: Use minor rebounds on the 1-hour or 4-hour charts to enter short positions at resistance levels.
- Entry points: Watch for price rebounds to the 2380–2400 range. If the 1-hour candle encounters resistance here (long upper shadow), it’s an excellent entry point for shorts.
- Stop-loss: Set above 2415 (breakout of 4-hour MA20 triggers stop-loss).
- Take profit: First target at 2320, second at 2300.

Strategy B: Breakout Short (Aggressive Strategy)
- Logic: If price cannot rebound and breaks below the daily MA10 support.
- Entry points: If the 1-hour candle closes with a confirmed break below 2305, enter short.
- Stop-loss: 2330.
- Take profit: Target 2250–2210 zone.

Strategy C: Short-term Rebound Play (Higher risk, for quick trades only)
- Logic: Bet on the validity of daily MA10 (2307) support.
- Entry points: Price retraces to around 2300–2310, with bullish divergence or long lower shadows on the 15-minute chart.
- Stop-loss: Exit decisively if it falls below 2285.
- Take profit: Rebound to 2350–2360, then exit; avoid greed.

IV. Risk Warnings
1. Large sell orders overhead: A screenshot shows over $30 million in sell orders, making any upward breakout very difficult, as major players may push the price down using these orders.
2. Bitcoin correlation: BTC is also declining (-2.11%), and if BTC breaks key supports further, ETH will accelerate downward.
3. Position management: Given the high volatility, keep positions within 5%–10%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss rules.

Summary: Today’s main bias is bearish, with a focus on shorting near the 2380 resistance zone.