Analysis: The probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a consensus on core demands is not low

ME News: On April 12 (UTC+8), CITIC Securities said that, based on the U.S. side’s core demands, if Iran can give up uranium enrichment, it will become the U.S.’s most core war achievement—and also the biggest “achievement” Trump can use to calm domestic opinion. This round of conflict has already had a large negative impact on the midterm elections, so the parties need to extricate themselves as soon as possible. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the United States has lost control over Iran’s nuclear capability, and the U.S. presidents over the past decades have not been able to resolve this problem, which has seriously affected America’s Middle East strategy. Compared with the huge role of Iran’s “nuclear abandonment” performance in political propaganda, the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on the elections; therefore, the Trump administration may be willing to compromise on issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz.

From the Iranian side’s core demands, this war has shown that blockading the strait and threatening Middle East infrastructure are extremely important balancing chips—possibly even more destructive and flexible than the threat of nuclear weapons. Compared with nuclear weapons that are extremely costly and difficult to control in terms of scale, blockading the strait and striking infrastructure only require low-cost drones to cause a major impact on the U.S. and the global economy, thereby forming a tool for Iran to balance against the U.S. The fact that both Iran and the U.S. have repeatedly stopped short at red lines near large-scale infrastructure destruction also means that the probability of extreme escalation of the war is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, a severe downturn, or stagflation is decreasing.

(Gold Ten) (Source: ODAILY)