Analysis: The probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a consensus on core demands is not low

ME News, April 12 (UTC+8): CITIC Securities said that, based on the core demands from the U.S. side, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it would become the most core war outcome for the U.S., and also the biggest “achievement” that Trump can use to soothe public opinion at home. This round of conflict has already had a large number of negative impacts on the midterm elections, so it is necessary to extricate itself as soon as possible. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the U.S. has lost the right to control Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and every U.S. president over the past few decades has failed to resolve this issue, seriously affecting the U.S.’s strategy in the Middle East. Compared with the huge role of Iran’s “nuclear abandonment” in political propaganda, the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on elections; therefore, the Trump administration may be willing to compromise on issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz.

From the core demands on the Iranian side, this war has proven that blocking the strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important leverage, even more destructive and flexible than nuclear-weapon threats. Compared with nuclear weapons that are extremely costly and difficult to control in terms of scale, blocking the strait and striking infrastructure only require low-cost drones to cause a significant impact on the U.S. and the global economy, thereby forming Iran’s counterbalancing tools against the U.S. The fact that both sides, Iran and the U.S., have repeatedly stopped short at red lines on the verge of large-scale infrastructure destruction also means that the probability of the war escalating to an extreme level is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, a sharp downturn, or stagflation is decreasing.

(Gold Ten) (Source: ODAILY)