Weekend market movements are always full of drama. Just as everyone was still immersed in the excitement of the evening surge to 78,300, the market had already quietly completed a shift in sentiment. If you carefully analyze the logic behind this rally, you'll find it resembles a typical "trap" game, and at this moment, risks are gathering above.

First, we need to identify the main driver of this upward move. On the surface, it appears to be the expectation of the Strait of Hormuz shipping resuming, which triggered a plunge in crude oil and new highs in the US stock market, thereby spilling liquidity into cryptocurrencies. But there is a huge hidden risk here: the unpredictability of news. Just as the market was celebrating the "full reopening" of the strait on Friday, the latest developments on Saturday showed that, due to accusations of "breaching trust," Iran had re-imposed restrictions on navigation. This kind of geopolitical news that changes rapidly indicates that the previous rally lacked solid fundamental support and was purely driven by sentiment pulses. When "good news" turns into "uncertainty," the funds that initially leveraged the rise will quickly take profits, which explains why the price dropped sharply after touching 78,300.

Second, from a market psychology perspective, this perfectly fits the classic game of "good news is bad news." When the news broke on Friday night, a large amount of speculative capital had already entered to buy in, pushing prices higher. By Saturday, when the price surged to around 78,300, these profit-taking positions had a strong desire to cash out. The new long positions entering at this point are actually standing opposite the "profit takers," becoming the bagholders. The chart's sharp pullback after the surge is a clear signal that the main funds are using the good news as a cover to offload their holdings.

Furthermore, the macro environment's improvement is not as stable as imagined. Although falling oil prices eased inflation pressures, the high-level oscillation of US stocks also shows that funds are cautious about upcoming economic data. During the weekend, when liquidity is relatively scarce, Bitcoin alone finds it difficult to sustain a continuous bullish trend. The current rise is more about the rapid rotation of existing funds across different sectors rather than new capital entering.

Therefore, in the face of heavy resistance above 78,300, it is crucial to stay clear-headed. The current market structure has already been broken, and there is a strong short-term need for correction. Since those who shorted near 78,000 last night already have the advantage, the current strategy should be to hold patiently and wait for the market to return to rationality. Weekend trading often involves intense shakeouts, so don’t be fooled by rebounds in the market. It’s important to monitor the support at around 75,700. If this level holds, there could be another push to 78,000 or higher, in which case it might be wise to consider taking profits first. I still see long-term potential around 88,000, with about 10k Dodo tokens already in place.

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