The probability of Powell remaining in office has soared to 98%, is Trump's "firing order" just talk?

Trump now seems to have a bit of an "internal and external trouble" vibe: externally embroiled with Iran, internally escalating the palace intrigue with Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
The two have long disliked each other. Powell previously refused to cut interest rates against Trump's wishes multiple times, and Trump has repeatedly said he wants to fire Powell.
Originally, as long as he endured a little longer, this trouble could quickly disappear on its own: Powell's term as Fed Chair will end on May 15, 2026.
Although he can stay on as a board member until 2028, as soon as Trump’s confidant Kevin Wirth is appointed, the new chair would hold the power of speech, and the era of obedient rate cuts seems imminent.
However, the unexpected still happened.
Odaily Seer’s monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of Powell stepping down as Fed Chair after his term ends has dropped to 2%, and Powell is very likely to continue serving as interim Fed Chair after May 15.
As early as March 19, Powell stated that if his successor is not confirmed before his term ends (May 15), he will continue to serve as Fed Chair, and further indicated that as long as the Department of Justice’s investigation into him (Odaily notes: this investigation involves whether Powell lied to Congress about the $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed building) is not concluded, he will not leave the Federal Reserve Board.
Therefore, whether Trump can get rid of Powell depends crucially on whether the Senate approves Kevin Wirth’s appointment.
Although the prediction market has already priced in this outcome, the real answer can only be revealed on April 21 (next Tuesday).