#山寨币强势反弹 Analyst: Bitcoin funding rates fall to the lowest level since 2023, which may trigger a short squeeze; BTC could rise to $125,000

Bitcoin fell 0.4% over 24 hours. News of US-Iran ceasefire talks boosted risk sentiment, and the S&P 500 index hit a record high on Thursday. Trump said the outlook for a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran “looks very optimistic,” and claimed that Iran has agreed to give up nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran has not yet confirmed the aforementioned concessions. Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the structural signals behind Bitcoin’s price action.
ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria said: “With funding rates this negative, it shows the market is heavily positioned for shorts. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a large number of short positions may be forcibly liquidated, which would further accelerate the price upward move.” He expects that if the short base is squeezed and cleared, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days. On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offers another perspective: Bitcoin’s “True Market Mean” (TMM) shows that the average cost basis of active holders is currently higher than the current price, and that holders are overall in an unrealized loss position. Since 2016, sustained breaks below this mean have often closely coincided with Bitcoin’s most brutal drawdown cycles, including the 2018 to 2019 bear market (largest decline of 57%, lasting 282 days) and the downside after the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022 to 2023 (largest decline of 56%, lasting 339 days). Analysts point out that the two assessments above are not mutually exclusive—an extreme negative funding-rate-driven short squeeze and the structural pressure of active holders being in overall unrealized losses can coexist. The former may trigger a large surge upward, but ultimately it may be absorbed by selling from the latter. The direction of the market going forward may depend on whether the US-Iran ceasefire can be extended beyond next week’s expiration.