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4.18 BTC Midday Market
I. Logical Support (3 Layers of Hardcore)
1. Options Structure (Positive Gamma)
All-range Puts dominate; falling → market makers buy to prop up demand; rising → market makers provide mild sell pressure.
→ 76500–78000 strong oscillation range, no basis for a one-way crash/surge.
2. Capital Flow (Institutional Reflow)
Spot ETF continues net inflows, stablecoin supply expands, contract positions steadily increase;
No large sell-offs, no panic exits—buy-side absorption remains strong.
3. Technical Analysis (Bullish Structure Intact)
1H/4H moving average lines are bullish, MACD has a golden cross above the zero axis, RSI is neutral and not overbought;
Pullbacks on shrinking volume, rebounds with increasing volume—the upward channel has not been broken.
II. Trend Qualification
High-level consolidation with a bullish bias
- Main scenario: 77000–78000 narrow-range consolidation, bullish bias to test higher levels
- Low probability: breakout above 78300 with increased volume leads to a one-way move; falling below 76800 turns weaker
III. Practical Targets
1. Low Buy
- Entry: 77000–77200
- Target 1: 77800
- Target 2: 78000
2. High Sell
- Entry: 78000–78200
- Target: 77200–77400
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