Analysis: The probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a consensus on core demands is not low

ME News message: On April 12 (UTC+8), CITIC Securities stated that, based on the U.S. side’s core demands, if Iran can give up uranium enrichment, it will become the most central war achievement for the U.S., as well as the biggest “accomplishment” that Trump can use to appease public opinion at home. This round of conflict has already had a large number of negative impacts on the midterm elections, so it needs to extricate itself as early as possible. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the U.S. has lost control over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and successive U.S. presidents over the past decades have failed to resolve this issue, severely affecting America’s Middle East strategy. Compared with the enormous role of Iran’s “nuclear abandonment” in political propaganda, the indirect link between oil prices and inflation on the election may be smaller, so the Trump administration might be willing to compromise on issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz.

From the Iranian side’s core demands, this war has shown that blockading the strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important leverage tools, even more destructive and flexible than nuclear weapons threats. Compared with nuclear weapons, which are extremely costly and difficult to control in scale, blocking the strait and striking infrastructure can be done by relying on low-cost drones to cause a major impact on the U.S. and the global economy, thereby forming Iran’s counterbalancing tool against the U.S. The fact that both the U.S. and Iran have repeatedly stopped short at red lines close to large-scale destruction of infrastructure also means that the probability of the war escalating to an extreme level is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, a sharp downturn, or stagflation is decreasing.

( Jin10 1928374656574839201 (Source: ODAILY)