Analysis: After BTC officially enters the second half of the bear market, even the final dip is unlikely to break below $45,500.

ME News Report, April 3rd (UTC+8), analyst Murphy stated that the on-chain average turnover cost of BTC held for 1-2 years (yellow line) has crossed with the on-chain average turnover cost of BTC held for 1-3 months (orange line). This signal is almost 100% certain at the on-chain data level, indicating that BTC has officially entered the second half of the bear market.
Additionally, Murphy also mentioned that the well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo’s long-term Bitcoin valuation metric CVDD reached $45,410 at the end of last month, a slow increase of only $506 since February 10th. This reflects that early large whale holders have significantly reduced or nearly stopped on-chain turnover.
CVDD is one of the few indicators in BTC history that has never failed — the price has always remained above CVDD, and the bear market bottom will only approach it infinitely but never fall below. Therefore, even if there is a “final dip,” BTC will not fall below approximately $45,500. Theoretically, the maximum decline is about 30%, but in practice, it is likely much less. (Source: ChainCatcher)