Analysis: The expectation of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran boosts risk assets, with short squeeze combined with low volatility driving Bitcoin's rebound

ME News message, on April 6 (UTC+8), driven by news of potential ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin and global risk assets strengthened. Bitcoin briefly rose to $69,350 in the early hours of Monday, hitting a new intrawweek high. According to media reports, the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire agreement framework, and if reached, it could further move toward a long-term ceasefire. Analysis suggests that this round of gains is mainly driven by expectations for ceasefire negotiations rather than Trump’s tough statements; the market’s sensitivity to his remarks has decreased, and it is now more inclined to judge based on actual action signals. In the derivatives market, the crypto market has formed a typical “short squeeze,” with both implied and actual volatility also remaining low. Market sentiment had been skewed toward extreme panic, creating conditions for a rebound. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key variable. If only a ceasefire is reached without a substantive resumption of shipping, the price action may be only a short-term rebound; if talks fail, Bitcoin could still fall back into the $60,000 range. (Source: ODAILY)