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Analysis: After BTC officially enters the second half of the bear market, even the final dip is unlikely to break below $45,500.
ME News message. On April 3 (UTC+8), analyst Murphy said that the on-chain average turnover cost for BTC by holding period (the yellow line for BTC held for 1–2 years) and the on-chain average turnover cost for BTC by holding period (the orange line for BTC held for 1–3 months) have crossed. At the on-chain data level, this signal is almost 100% certain, indicating that BTC has officially entered the second half of the bear market.
In addition, Murphy also said that the CVDD long-term Bitcoin valuation metric proposed by well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 at the end of last month, rising only slowly by $506 compared with February 10. This reflects that early large whale holders have significantly reduced or even nearly stopped on-chain turnover.
CVDD is one of the few indicators in BTC history that has never failed—price has always stayed above CVDD. The bear-market bottom will only infinitely approach it but never fall below it. Therefore, even if there is still a “final dip,” BTC will not fall below approximately $45,500. Theoretically, the maximum decline is at most about 30%, but in reality it is very likely far less. (Source: ChainCatcher)