Analysis: After BTC officially enters the second half of the bear market, even the final dip is unlikely to break below $45,500.

robot
Abstract generation in progress

ME News message. On April 3 (UTC+8), analyst Murphy said that the on-chain average turnover cost for BTC by holding period (the yellow line for BTC held for 1–2 years) and the on-chain average turnover cost for BTC by holding period (the orange line for BTC held for 1–3 months) have crossed. At the on-chain data level, this signal is almost 100% certain, indicating that BTC has officially entered the second half of the bear market.

In addition, Murphy also said that the CVDD long-term Bitcoin valuation metric proposed by well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 at the end of last month, rising only slowly by $506 compared with February 10. This reflects that early large whale holders have significantly reduced or even nearly stopped on-chain turnover.

CVDD is one of the few indicators in BTC history that has never failed—price has always stayed above CVDD. The bear-market bottom will only infinitely approach it but never fall below it. Therefore, even if there is still a “final dip,” BTC will not fall below approximately $45,500. Theoretically, the maximum decline is at most about 30%, but in reality it is very likely far less. (Source: ChainCatcher)

BTC0.49%
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pin