Recently, some people have been using stablecoin supply curves to align with ETF net inflows, saying "Off-exchange money is coming in, so prices are rising," which sounds plausible, but I always feel it's dangerous to treat correlation as causation. An increase in supply might just be shell games, moving addresses, market makers adjusting positions, or even on-chain delays/reorganizations causing fluctuations; statistical measures can be skewed... Look at the chat groups where they talk about "regulation coming," "reserve audits having issues," or "de-pegging happening"—those charts change quickly, and emotions often outpace data.

Forget it, to put it plainly: I now believe more in the idea that "funds are hesitating." ETFs are straightforward channels, stablecoins are tools, and having more tools doesn’t necessarily mean they’re used in the same direction. Anyway, I’m mainly watching for on-chain anomalies in minting and burning, and large inflows or outflows from exchanges. When I see overly neat narratives, I first raise a question.