This round of surge is more like the last dance before a plunge: why I think it's better to wait for the rebound to fail now rather than blindly chase the long side.

This round of rapid increase is more like the last dance before a crash: why I believe it’s better to wait for the rebound to exhaust itself rather than blindly chasing the rally

Let’s first lay out the current market situation. On April 17, BTC had already reached about $76,640, and ETH broke above approximately $2,406; at the same time, market risk appetite clearly warmed up, with Barron’s attributing this rally directly to expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, and Reuters confirming that as ceasefire and negotiation hopes rose, oil prices once fell nearly 10% on April 17, global stock markets approached record highs, and the US dollar retreated from safe-haven levels. In other words, this crypto market rally is not primarily a “fundamentally independent bull market,” but rather a surge driven by a simultaneous emotional lift in global risk assets.

Of course, the bulls’ logic isn’t without foundation. Over the past week, CoinShares data shows that weekly net inflows into digital asset investment products reached $1.1 billion, the largest since early January 2026, with the US contributing about $1.06 billion. ETF markets also improved: the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of $411.4 million on April 14, $186.1 million on April 15, and continued inflows of $26.1 million on April 16; Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $9.5 million, $53.1 million, $67.9 million, and $18 million respectively from April 13 to 16. Additionally, Schwab is preparing to launch spot crypto trading, Goldman Sachs has submitted its first Bitcoin ETF application, and Morgan Stanley has already launched related products. These developments give the market a very strong impression: institutions are still entering, traditional finance is still engaging, and the trend may not be over.

But the problem lies precisely here: capital inflows do not equal a confirmed bull market; policy expectations do not equal liquidity easing. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ March CPI report released on April 10 shows that overall US CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, and core CPI to 2.6%; more critically, energy components surged 10.9% in March alone, with gasoline up 21.2% in the same period. The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes also explicitly mention that near-month crude oil futures prices increased about 50% during the meeting period, prompting officials to raise their inflation forecasts for this year, and they believe growth and employment risks are skewed downward, while inflation risks are skewed upward. Reuters also cited LSEG data on April 17, indicating that the market currently prices in about a 69% chance that interest rates will not be cut until the end of 2026. This means that the core condition for a true bull market—sustained, clear, and loose dollar liquidity—is not actually present right now.

In other words, this wave is more like a “risk asset rebound after bad news eases,” rather than the start of a “new super cycle.” Because if it truly were a new major upward wave, you would typically see two things happening simultaneously: first, continuous and stable net capital inflows; second, trading volume and risk appetite expanding in sync, creating a self-reinforcing trend. But what we are seeing now is quite the opposite: CoinShares recorded $1.1 billion in weekly inflows, but also pointed out that the entire market’s trading volume is only $21 billion, still significantly below the yearly average of $31 billion; spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are also unstable, with a single-day outflow of $291 million on April 13, followed by rebounds on the 14th and 15th. This indicates that capital isn’t blindly embracing the trend but is instead testing the waters and switching quickly back and forth. This structure resembles a fragile rebound rather than a solid start of a major bull run.

Looking at the cycle position, the market’s optimism isn’t very solid either. Reuters noted on April 14 that BTC was still about 40% below its all-time high of $126,223 set in October 2025; based on April 17’s price of around $76,640, BTC remains roughly 39.3% below that high. This suggests that BTC is not in the “accelerating phase of a new high,” but rather in a mid-rebound zone after a large-scale decline. The global markets themselves also carry a somewhat “overly optimistic” tone: Reuters wrote plainly on April 17 that while global stock markets have returned close to record highs, oil prices are still significantly above pre-war levels, US bond yields are also higher than pre-war levels, and some institutional investors are beginning to question whether the market has “risen too fast, too far, and are ignoring risks.” If peripheral risk assets are all showing this “rise first, ask questions later” attitude, then the crypto market—more elastic and volatile—may be the last to see the emotional extremes, and the first to turn around.

This wave of rapid surge is likely not the start of a major bull market, but rather a high-quality, highly impactful “last dance.” Its essence is that, under the influence of geopolitical easing, falling oil prices, short-term ETF inflows, and institutional news catalysts, the market quickly repairs its pessimism; but after this repair, the fundamental issues remain unresolved—inflation pressures haven’t fully receded, the Fed hasn’t truly turned dovish, market expectations for rate cuts are still fragile, and liquidity isn’t stable enough to support altcoins expanding several times over. In this environment, chasing high and going long may not be a good bet; it’s better to see this as a risk release zone in the late stage of the rebound, waiting for the rebound to exhaust itself to short or hedge at the top.

Of course, this judgment isn’t absolute. Its invalidation conditions are also clear: if in the coming weeks US inflation re-falls, rate cut expectations rise again, BTC/ETH ETFs see larger-scale net inflows, and BTC truly stabilizes in this zone and turns the “risk rebound” into a “trend breakout,” then the bearish case will be significantly weakened. But as of April 17, 2026, I believe that “don’t chase longs, be cautious about this frenzy, and prioritize shorting or hedging at the tail end of the rebound” remains the more advantageous framework.