Bitcoin miners face increasing pressure: listed mining companies sell a record 32k BTC in a single quarter

In the first quarter of 2026, North American listed Bitcoin mining companies sold a total of over 32k BTC, a scale that not only surpasses the total for all of 2025 but also exceeds the levels during the Terra-Luna collapse in Q2 2022, setting a new record for single-quarter miner sales. Major miners participating in this round of selling include MARA Holdings, CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Cango, Core Scientific, and Bitdeer, with MARA selling over 15,000 BTC in March alone, and CleanSpark’s February sales reaching over 97% of that month’s production. This scale of selling far exceeds any previous cyclical adjustment phase of miner disposals, reflecting that the operational pressures faced by miners have evolved from marginal squeezes to systemic survival crises.

What Does Hashprice Dropping to Historic Lows Mean

The core metric measuring miner profitability—Hashprice, which is the daily mining revenue per unit of hash power—fell to approximately $28 to $35 per PH/s daily in Q1 2026, with a brief dip to about $28 per PH/s/day in early March, hitting the lowest level since the halving. This indicator is critical because it directly determines miners’ net earnings after paying electricity and operational costs. Currently, Hashprice is below the breakeven threshold for many miners, with about 15% to 20% of old mining rigs operating at a loss globally. Historical data shows that Hashprice typically recovers to higher levels after previous halving cycles when the price rebounds, but in this cycle, the duration and depth of downward pressure on hash power prices have exceeded past levels, suggesting that miners’ income recovery cycles could be significantly prolonged.

Why Are Miners’ Survival Pressures Continuing to Widen After the Halving

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, an supply-side shock that was not fully offset by rising Bitcoin prices. On the contrary, since Q4 2025, Bitcoin’s price has fallen from a peak of about $124,500, combined with the continuous increase in total network hash rate approaching record highs, creating a double pressure on miner revenues. According to CoinShares, the weighted average cash cost to produce a single Bitcoin for publicly listed miners in Q4 2025 rose to about $79,995, while Bitcoin trading prices during the same period fluctuated between $70,000 and $75,000, meaning some miners are already operating at cash costs and capital expenditure losses. The 2028 halving will further cut block rewards from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, and if hash power prices cannot effectively rebound by then, the industry will face more severe structural challenges.

How Changes in Miner Holdings Reveal a Structural Shift in the Industry

CryptoQuant data shows that the total Bitcoin holdings of miners have decreased from about 1.86 million BTC at the end of 2023 to approximately 1.80 million BTC now, a net reduction of about 60k BTC over two years. This trend contrasts sharply with the behavior pattern before previous halvings, when miners generally accumulated more coins—public miners increased holdings by 17,593 BTC in 2024, with total holdings once surpassing 100k BTC. The continuous contraction in holdings reflects two structural changes: first, miners shifting from long-term holders to passive sellers; second, miner disposals no longer being short-term liquidity management but rather a survival asset swap. When about 20% of miners remain unprofitable and hash power prices fall below breakeven, selling BTC has become a rigid choice to maintain operational cash flow rather than a strategic financial decision.

How Miner Surrender Signals Have Historically Mapped Market Bottoms

Three consecutive reductions in mining difficulty— the first such sequence since July 2022—are widely viewed in technical analysis as clear signals of miner capitulation. Historically, during the Terra-Luna collapse in 2022, miners sold about 7,900 BTC over two months, with Bitcoin prices dropping nearly 70% from a peak of about $69,000, leading to large-scale bankruptcies of top miners like Core Scientific. After the FTX collapse at the end of 2022, miner capitulation caused about a 7.7% decline in hash rate, after which the market gradually confirmed a bottom. Currently, the Q1 selling volume exceeds those two crises, but the drivers differ: in 2022, the pressure mainly came from a sharp price decline, whereas now, structural cost increases and stagnant prices are jointly exerting pressure.

How Miners’ Shift Toward AI Is Changing Industry Competition

In the context of squeezed profit margins, miners’ pivot toward artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) is reshaping industry competition. Listed miners have announced over $70 billion in AI/HPC contracts, with some expecting up to 70% of revenue from AI by the end of 2026. Capital markets have assigned significant premiums to AI narratives: miners with HPC contracts are valued at 12.3 times earnings, compared to just 5.9 times for pure mining companies. However, this transition also brings profound changes in debt structures: IREN holds $3.7 billion in convertible notes, and WULF’s total liabilities reach $5.7 billion, significantly increasing industry leverage. This divergence means future competitiveness will depend less solely on mining efficiency and hash power scale, and more on energy asset allocation and capital structure management.

The Deep Impact of Miner Selling on Market Supply and Demand

As the only participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem with ongoing production costs, miners’ selling behavior has a unique transmission mechanism on market supply and demand. The ongoing decline in holdings among listed miners, combined with the halving-induced reduction in block rewards and rising network hash rate, indicates that hash rate growth is driven more by new entrants with lower marginal costs rather than existing miners expanding. Meanwhile, institutional funds and corporate holdings continue to increase, balancing the holder structure—production entities are ceding positions to allocators. If this transfer is accompanied by a rising proportion of long-term on-chain holders, it could gradually reduce market sensitivity to short-term supply shocks. However, CoinShares warns that unless Bitcoin prices rebound significantly, high-cost miners will further exit the market in the first half of 2026.

Does Changing Miner Behavior Signal a New Industry Phase?

From a macro perspective, this round of miner selling may not only reflect cyclical pressure but also mark a structural reshaping of the Bitcoin mining industry. Historically, during halving cycles, miners could endure short-term pain and wait for hash power prices to recover to new highs for profit restoration. But with hash prices persistently in the $30–$35 per PH/s/day range, recovery assumptions are less secure. The shift from “HODLers” to “passive sellers,” the reallocation toward AI infrastructure, and the systemic leverage increase all combine to create an environment unlike any previous cycle. This suggests that the analytical framework for miner behavior needs updating—while sell signals in volume are informative, the underlying structural changes are equally important to monitor.

Summary

In Q1 2026, listed miners sold over 32,000 BTC, setting a record. The fundamental drivers include Hashprice falling to historic lows and production costs approaching $80,000, causing about 20% of miners to operate at a loss. This scale of selling exceeds that during the Terra-Luna collapse in 2022, but the causes are more complex—beyond price declines, structural pressures from rising hash power and supply reduction post-halving are at play. The ongoing contraction of miner holdings and accelerated shift toward AI infrastructure are redefining competitive boundaries and industry risk profiles. Historically, miner capitulation signals often relate to market bottoms, but the structural differences in this cycle mean linear extrapolation from past patterns carries significant uncertainty.

FAQ

Q1: What is Hashprice, and why is it a key indicator of miner pressure?

Hashprice represents the daily mining revenue per unit of hash power, usually in USD/PH/s/day. It reflects the combined effects of Bitcoin price, network difficulty, and block rewards, serving as a core measure of miner profitability. When Hashprice falls below operational costs—mainly electricity—miners face losses and are forced to sell their BTC holdings to maintain cash flow.

Q2: How significant is the scale of 32,000 BTC sold by listed miners in Q1 2026?

The Q1 sell-off exceeds the total for all of 2025 and surpasses the levels during the Terra-Luna collapse in Q2 2022, setting a record for single-quarter sales. Leading miners involved include MARA, CleanSpark, Riot, Cango, Core Scientific, and Bitdeer.

Q3: How have miner capitulation signals historically affected Bitcoin markets?

Historically, large-scale miner sales and consecutive difficulty reductions often occur near market bottoms. Miners are passive sellers with rigid operational costs; when prices fall below breakeven, they are forced to sell. Once selling pressure eases, market selling diminishes, creating conditions for price recovery. However, each capitulation event has different structural drivers, so past patterns are not always directly applicable.

Q4: What are the long-term industry implications of miners’ shift toward AI?

Miner transition into AI and HPC is changing energy and capital allocation structures. Over $70 billion in AI contracts have been announced, with some expecting up to 70% of revenue from AI by 2026. This trend shifts the industry from pure mining to diversified infrastructure operations, reshaping competitive dynamics and valuation models.