Deep analysis of cryptocurrency liquidation data: 176k people were liquidated. What happened in the futures market?

April 16 to 17, the cryptocurrency derivatives market experienced a round of intense liquidations. According to CoinGlass data, the total contract liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached $438.8 million, involving a total of 173,861 traders being liquidated, with long positions liquidated at $210.1 million and short positions at $228.8 million, with the short side accounting for about 52% of total liquidations. From a time-sharing perspective, liquidations were mainly concentrated during Asian trading hours: $353 million in 12 hours, $25.9 million in 4 hours, and $7.77 million in 1 hour. The largest single liquidation came from the BTCUSDC contract, amounting to $9.71 million.

This liquidation distribution clearly indicates that the main pressure window for market volatility is concentrated within a tight range of Bitcoin rapidly rising from $75,400 to a pullback at $73,501, rather than being evenly spread throughout the day. The intraday liquidation structure also reveals a causal relationship between leverage accumulation and price movements—before the price breaks through, short positions are highly concentrated above $75k; once broken, chain reactions of forced liquidations are triggered. When the price pulls back, long positions also suffer shocks, forming a typical two-way squeeze pattern.

Why Does the $75,000 Level Keep Acting as a Price Ceiling?

Bitcoin briefly surged to $75,404 during Asian hours, then quickly retraced, dipping to a low of $73,501, with a 24-hour volatility range approaching $1,900. As of April 17, 2026, BTC is roughly quoted at $74,954. This is not the first time Bitcoin has encountered resistance near $75,000. Over the past few weeks, this range has repeatedly formed the upper boundary of the price. From a liquidity structure perspective, there is an approximately $2.81 billion concentrated short leverage zone between $76,000 and $78,000, making it a natural resistance zone for upward movement. When the price approaches this range, selling pressure significantly increases while buying strength weakens. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq index has risen for 12 consecutive days, creating the longest winning streak since 2009, reflecting high sentiment in traditional risk assets. However, Bitcoin failed to break through effectively following this spillover effect and instead quickly retreated after touching $75,000. This divergence from traditional markets indicates that $75,000 is not only a technical resistance level but also a structural equilibrium point between bulls and bears at that price.

What Signals Are Sent by Derivatives Market Funding Rates?

Although Bitcoin’s price has slowly climbed from over $60k in March to about $75,000 in April, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s funding rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, indicating a large number of short positions still exist in the market. After a rebound, the market funding rate turned positive to about +0.0005, but this was not driven by new bullish positions; rather, it was the result of passive short liquidations. Historically, extremely negative funding rates often coincide with local market bottoms, such as in March 2020, mid-2021, and during the FTX collapse in 2022. However, the current market environment differs—prices have continued to rise despite sustained negative funding rates, suggesting that short squeeze pressure is high but not preventing slow upward price movement. The divergence between funding rates and price trends reflects differing outlooks among derivatives market participants and hints at potential energy for future short squeezes.

Why Has the Macro Environment Not Provided Sufficient Momentum for Bitcoin to Break Through?

Recent macro factors have been supportive. Progress in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations eased Middle East geopolitical risks, the US SEC set a five-year safe harbor for some DeFi projects, and MicroStrategy reaffirmed its purchase of 13,927 BTC, totaling over $1 billion. However, these supports have not translated into a decisive push above $75,000. The main constraints come from inflation and interest rate expectations. In March, US CPI year-over-year rebounded to 3.3%, with energy components surging 10.9% month-over-month. Deutsche Bank’s latest forecast expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through 2026, contrary to previous expectations of rate cuts in September. CME interest rate futures indicate the market has largely priced in no rate cuts in the first half of the year. The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 4.3%. For high-leverage crypto derivatives markets, tightening liquidity expectations mean reduced risk appetite and higher capital costs, directly suppressing spot buying interest. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows have been mixed: a net outflow of $291 million on April 13—the largest since March 27—and a rebound to $186 million net inflow on April 15. The oscillation in institutional fund flows reflects hesitation about the current price range.

How Does Insufficient Spot Participation Limit the Sustainability of the Rebound?

A notable structural feature in this rally is the disconnect between spot participation and derivatives activity. During Bitcoin’s rebound from $73,200 to near $75,000, the net volume difference in spot trading continued to decline, indicating that even as BTC stayed above $74,000, net buying participation in the spot market was weakening. This suggests that the rebound is mainly driven by mechanical short covering—passive buy orders generated by short liquidations—rather than active new buying in the spot market. Such a liquidation-driven rebound is inherently unstable: when the squeezing momentum in derivatives wanes and spot demand does not pick up, prices tend to fall back into previous ranges. To break through the $76,000 high, spot demand and derivatives activity need to synchronize and strengthen, creating a combined force. Otherwise, short-term price movements after squeezes are often difficult to sustain.

How Does Liquidity Distribution Shape Price Fluctuation Boundaries?

Bitcoin’s price has been moving within clearly defined liquidity clusters. The $76,000–$78,000 range contains a concentrated supply zone with about $2.81 billion in short leverage liquidity. The $74,000 level acts as a balancing zone where buying and selling forces are relatively equal. Below $72,000, there is approximately $2.5 billion in long leverage liquidity. This liquidity distribution structure makes the price’s path of fluctuation relatively predictable: when the price approaches a dense liquidity zone, liquidation behaviors amplify the speed and magnitude of price moves in the opposite direction. For example, when the price drops near $73,200, large-scale long liquidations on various platforms accelerate the downward movement; conversely, when the market finds support, short covering becomes the main driver of rebounds. This liquidation-led price behavior explains the “rapid rise—quick pullback” zigzag pattern observed around $75,000.

Summary

From April 16 to 17, 2026, Bitcoin retreated from $75,400 after hitting a high, triggering $438.8 million in liquidations across the network within 24 hours, with over 173k traders being liquidated, and short positions accounting for 52%. The core driver of this liquidation event was the concentration of short leverage above $75,000—price breakthroughs triggered chain reactions of chain liquidations, creating a short squeeze. Meanwhile, insufficient spot participation limited the sustainability of the rebound. From a liquidity perspective, the $76,000–$78,000 range with $2.81 billion in short leverage liquidity constitutes a major resistance zone; macro factors such as inflation surprises and cooling rate expectations suppressed risk appetite; derivatives signals show funding rates at their lowest since 2023, yet prices are still slowly rising, reflecting a divergence between position structures and price trends. Future key market variables include whether spot demand can improve in the rebound, whether institutional fund flows continue, and whether Fed rate expectations change.

FAQ

Q1: In the $436 million liquidation, what is the ratio of longs to shorts?

Long liquidations totaled $210.1 million, shorts $228.8 million, with shorts accounting for about 52%, longs about 48%, a typical double liquidation pattern.

Q2: Why does Bitcoin repeatedly face resistance near $75,000?

The $76,000–$78,000 range contains about $2.81 billion in concentrated short leverage liquidity, creating strong supply pressure. Additionally, spot participation is insufficient, lacking sustained support after breakthroughs.

Q3: What does a persistently negative funding rate imply?

A negative funding rate indicates crowded short positions, with traders willing to pay premiums to hold shorts. Historically, such structures often appear near market bottoms, but in the current upward trend, it mainly reflects position structure divergence rather than a clear directional signal.

Q4: How do spot ETF fund flows affect the market?

Spot ETF flows reflect institutional investors’ allocation willingness. Recent alternating inflows and outflows suggest cautious attitudes around $75,000, making sustained buying support difficult in the short term.

Q5: How to understand the difference between “liquidation-driven rebounds” and “trend-based upward movements”?

Liquidation-driven rebounds mainly result from forced short covering, producing passive buy orders, and lack lasting momentum. Once squeezing momentum exhausts and spot demand does not follow, prices tend to fall back. Trend-based rises require synchronized growth in spot demand and derivatives activity, creating a combined force.