Bitcoin's upward momentum is weakening, and the market is shifting focus to the progress of actual economic recovery.

Mars Finance News: On April 17, Bitcoin’s price briefly broke above $76,000 before falling back again, continuing this week’s volatile trend. The approximately 10% rally driven by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire news is gradually fading, and the market is shifting from emotion-driven to verifying signals of actual economic recovery. Institutional views indicate that a simple ceasefire is no longer enough to support risk assets to continue rising; investors are more focused on substantial progress such as the recovery of energy supplies, the decline in crude oil risk premiums, and easing inflation. The current key variable remains the recovery of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the conflict accounted for about 20% of global crude oil shipments. In the energy markets, WTI crude oil prices have fallen back to around $87.5, while Brent remains near $90, indicating market caution regarding supply recovery. In derivatives data, the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to decline, suggesting market expectations of clearer macro developments in the short term; meanwhile, open interest in Solana and DOGE futures has risen to multi-week highs, increasing leverage demand and potentially amplifying price volatility risks. On the technical side, Bitcoin has formed a potential “double top” pattern near $76,000. If it breaks below the neckline at $73,300, it could further decline to $70,000; if it successfully breaks above $76,000, it may open the way to rise toward $88,000. Overall, the market remains in a “partial recovery” stage, with risk appetite improving but not yet fully confirmed. Future focus should be on the recovery of energy supplies and changes in macroeconomic data.