Bitcoin whales sell 36,000 BTC in one week: technical charts reveal key market signals

In mid-April 2026, a rare set of signal resonances appeared in the Bitcoin market. Technical charts continuously issued bearish divergence warnings, on-chain data showed top whale groups accelerating their disposals, and derivatives market liquidation leverage distributions exhibited highly asymmetric long squeeze risks. According to Santiment on-chain data, the two largest whale groups holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC and between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC collectively reduced their holdings by over 36,000 BTC in less than a week. Simultaneously, the 8-hour chart showed two consecutive RSI bearish divergences, with prices reaching higher highs while momentum indicators continued to decline.

As of April 17, 2026, according to Gate data, Bitcoin’s price was $75,615.90, up approximately 1.58% in 24 hours, with a total market cap of about $1.33 trillion and a market share of 55.27%. Over the past 7 days, the price declined by about 2.97%, and over the past year, by approximately 19.15%. The price still appears to be oscillating within a range, but the convergence of these three signals suggests the market may be at a critical structural divergence point.

Multiple signals resonating within the same window

From April 14 to 16, 2026, Bitcoin on the 8-hour chart showed three consecutive bearish warnings. The first appeared on April 14, when the price attempted to break above the ascending channel’s upper boundary but was rejected; the second formed between April 7 and 15, with the price making higher highs while RSI peaks declined, creating a classic bearish divergence; the third was completed between April 7 and 16, with the price again reaching higher highs but RSI further declining, forming a “back-to-back” consecutive bearish divergence—considered a relatively rare structural warning in technical analysis.

Meanwhile, on-chain data showed highly synchronized disposals. The whale group holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC reduced their holdings from 2.26 million BTC to 2.23 million BTC starting April 12, a disposal of about 30,000 BTC; the top whale group holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC began selling after the first divergence signal was confirmed on April 15, reducing holdings from 670,440 BTC to 664,000 BTC, a disposal of about 6,400 BTC. Together, these two largest whale groups sold over 36,000 BTC in less than a week. The timing of these disposals nearly perfectly coincides with the technical warnings, indicating that the largest holders are taking the technical signals seriously.

The derivatives market further emphasizes this risk picture. One exchange’s cumulative long liquidation leverage over the past 7 days was about $2.37 billion, while short liquidation leverage was about $1.31 billion. Long holders bear approximately 1.8 times the liquidation risk of short holders. According to Coinglass’s heatmap data, current Bitcoin liquidation risk is highly concentrated in a narrow range between $70,721 and $78,068. If the price falls below $70,721, about $13.3k of long positions on major centralized exchanges could be forcibly liquidated; if it breaks above $78,068, about $1.25 billion of short positions could be squeezed out.

Risk profile in three dimensions

Technical structure: momentum decay within the rising channel

Bitcoin’s ascending channel since March 29 exhibits a series of higher highs and higher lows, a typical upward trend structure. However, momentum indicators do not confirm the strength of this trend.

The first bearish warning occurred on April 14, when the price approached the channel’s upper boundary but failed to break through and was pushed back. The second was a classic bearish divergence: between April 7 and 15, the price made higher highs while RSI peaks declined, leading to about a 3% correction. The third warning is more severe: on April 16, the price again made a higher high, but RSI reached a lower peak than on April 7, forming two consecutive bearish divergences—an uncommon “back-to-back” divergence structure that usually indicates deep momentum decay.

Additionally, the Money Flow Index reached about 79.00 on April 16, near the highest level since the recent rebound, approaching overbought territory. CME Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to $8.41 billion, the lowest in 14 months. This contraction is mainly driven by institutional unwinding of basis trades, with annualized returns dropping from 15-20% to around 5%. The narrowing arbitrage window is forcing institutions to gradually exit leverage exposure.

On-chain structure: distributed disposals by whale groups

Santiment’s on-chain data shows that the whale group holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC has reduced about 30,000 BTC since April 12, and the top whale group holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC has reduced about 6,400 BTC since April 15. Together, these two largest whale groups have sold over 36,000 BTC in less than a week.

This scale of disposal must be understood in a broader context. In Q1 2026, public listed companies bought about 62,000 BTC, while strategic firms’ holdings reached approximately 780,897 BTC. However, on-chain demand indicators from CryptoQuant show that as of the end of March 2026, Bitcoin’s “apparent demand” remained negative at about -63,000 BTC, indicating persistent selling pressure exceeding institutional absorption capacity. The further disposals by whale groups in mid-April occur against this structural supply-demand imbalance.

Derivatives structure: asymmetric liquidation leverage distribution

Data from the derivatives market reveals a highly concentrated liquidation risk within two key price levels. According to Coinglass heatmaps, if the price drops below $70,721, the accumulated long liquidation on major centralized exchanges is estimated at about $15B; if it breaks above $78,068, the short liquidation could reach about $1.25 billion. This is a typical “liquidation pocket” structure—large leveraged positions waiting to be triggered both above and below, with asymmetric long and short liquidation scales.

On a specific exchange platform, the past 7 days saw a total long liquidation leverage of $2.37 billion, and short liquidation leverage of $1.31 billion. The risk exposure of longs is about 1.8 times that of shorts. The simultaneous high long exposure, whale disposals, and technical divergences significantly increase the risk of long squeeze. If the price falls below the $70,721 support, a chain reaction of forced liquidations could be triggered, exerting downward pressure on prices.

Bearish consensus and structural divergence coexist

Technical outlook points to downside pressure. Multiple analysis firms note that as Bitcoin approaches the resistance zone around $74,500 to $76,000, three bearish divergence signals have appeared. Alex Thorne, head of technical analysis at DeFi Analytics Group, explicitly states in client reports: “The pattern of making new highs while RSI peaks decline is often a precursor to a significant correction.” Some analysts set correction targets between $72,000 and $70,000, assuming the price cannot effectively break above $76,000.

On-chain data reveals supply structure changes. Santiment data shows that the whale group holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC now controls about 4.25 million BTC, accounting for 21.3% of circulating supply—the highest concentration since mid-February. However, this reflects longer-term accumulation trends, contrasting with the short-term disposal of 36,000 BTC in mid-April. Some analysts interpret this as a sign of internal strategic divergence: some whales are tactically repositioning, while others maintain strategic holdings.

Liquidation structure hints at uncertain squeeze directions. Views within the derivatives trading community are mixed. Some believe the large long liquidation leverage makes the market more prone to downward triggers; others point out that the current fear-and-greed index reading of about 21 indicates the market has been in “extreme fear” for over 46 days, which historically can mark a bottom or signal a prolonged downtrend. The heatmap shows large leverage positions on both sides, meaning the next move depends heavily on which side is triggered first, rather than a predetermined direction.

It’s worth noting that the extreme pessimism in market sentiment contrasts sharply with prices still near $75,000. Historically, extreme fear often marks a market bottom, but it can also occur early in a long-term downtrend. Relying solely on sentiment indicators is insufficient for directional judgment.

Industry impact analysis: from signal resonance to structural evolution

If the resonance of these signals ultimately leads to a substantial price breakout, the structural impacts on the crypto industry can be viewed through several dimensions:

Transmission effects of derivatives liquidation chains. Currently, liquidation risks are highly concentrated within the narrow range of $70,721 to $78,068. A decisive breakout in either direction could trigger chain reactions of forced liquidations, amplifying volatility. Below $70,721, about $1.64B of long positions face liquidation risk, potentially exerting significant downward pressure if triggered en masse.

Whale behavior versus institutional demand dynamics. In Q1 2026, public companies bought about 62,000 BTC, and strategic firms’ holdings approached 780k BTC. The US spot ETF’s assets under management exceeded $96.5 billion. Institutional inflows are providing a structural “buying floor.” However, CryptoQuant’s demand indicators show overall market selling pressure still exceeds buying, and whale disposals further worsen this imbalance. If the whale selling continues while institutional buying slows, the market could face deeper corrections.

Self-reinforcing market sentiment risks. The fear-and-greed index has been in “extreme fear” for over 46 days, currently at 21. Such extreme negative sentiment can be a leading indicator of bottoms or a feedback loop of negative news, panic selling, price declines, and more panic. If whale disposals are interpreted as “smart money leaving,” it could further suppress retail risk appetite.

Bitcoin’s dominant market position and chain reaction effects. As of April 17, Bitcoin’s market share is about 55.27%. Historically, Bitcoin’s direction at key turning points often influences the entire crypto market. A breakdown below key support could lead to liquidity crunches in altcoins; a breakout above the short liquidation trigger at $78,068 could trigger short squeeze and quickly restore market sentiment.

Conclusion

In mid-April 2026, Bitcoin faces a complex market landscape of multiple intertwined signals. Continuous bearish divergences on charts suggest momentum decay, on-chain data shows the largest whale groups are accelerating disposals, and derivatives liquidation leverage distributions exhibit asymmetric risks. The resonance of these three signals within the same window increases the likelihood of a key turning point.

However, signal resonance does not guarantee a specific direction. The 36,000 BTC disposals by the two major whale groups represent a limited proportion of their total holdings, CME futures position declines mainly reflect basis trade unwinding, and extreme fear-and-greed readings have historically marked bottoms or early downtrends. Structural factors such as ongoing institutional ETF inflows, declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges (currently around 2.7 million BTC, the lowest since 2019), and the total assets under management of spot ETFs over $96.5 billion provide important support.

The critical levels at $70,721 and $78,068 will largely determine the next market direction. Each test within this range serves as a probe of the current supply-demand balance. For market participants, maintaining focus on key levels, avoiding over-leverage, and exercising caution during this signal resonance window may be the most rational approach.