Tonight's ETH Price Trend Analysis Briefly Discussed ( Current Price $2354

1. Technical Key Signals

1. Short-term Trend

Resistance Level: $2380-$2400 (Four-hour Bollinger Band upper band + dense area of previous trapped positions).

Support Level: $2300-$2280 (short-term moving averages MA7/14 support + psychological threshold).

Pattern: Price is within an upward channel between the middle and upper bands; four-hour MACD shows decreasing red bars, indicating waning bullish momentum and a need for a pullback.

2. Medium-term Trend

Daily moving averages are arranged in a bullish order (MA7/14/30 upward), but MA90 is still declining, so the medium-term bearish pressure remains.

Trading volume has been decreasing consecutively, with no volume on rebounds, and volume increases during pullbacks, indicating strong market caution.

2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flows

Funding Rate: Neutral to slightly bearish, with long positions not holding an advantage.

Key Event: Heavy selling pressure in the $2400-$2450 range (confirmed by the high-to-low pullback on April 15), caution is needed for potential trap setups followed by sharp declines.

Correlation: The trend heavily depends on BTC; if Bitcoin breaks above $48,000, ETH may follow passively; otherwise, it may also pull back in tandem.

3. Trading Recommendations

1. Bullish Scenario (Probability 45%)

Breakout Signal: Volume confirms steady above $2380, targeting $2450-$2469 (channel upper band + Fibonacci resistance).

Entry Strategy: Enter long with a small position after breaking $2380, with a stop-loss at $2350, aiming for $2450.

2. Bearish Scenario (Probability 55%)

Breakdown Signal: Falling below $2300, destroying the short-term bullish structure, with a target of $2200-$2220.

Entry Strategy: Short on rebounds to the $2350-$2380 zone encountering resistance, with a stop-loss at $2400, targeting $2300.

4. Risk Warnings

Regulatory Risk: US SEC's regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies may trigger market volatility.

Liquidity Risk: The period from 20:00 to 24:00 (European and American trading hours) may see amplified volatility.

Technical Traps: During Bollinger Band squeeze phases, false breakouts are common; volume confirmation is necessary.

Conclusion: Tonight, ETH is likely to continue oscillating. Focus on the breakout directions of resistance at $2380-$2400 and support at $2300. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of high short and low long, with strict stop-losses to avoid chasing rallies or panic selling.