Shanzhai flying wildly📈, is the market's Shanzhai season restarting? I will briefly analyze based on the Shanzhai season index, capital flow, current stage, and other data. This is just my personal opinion and not investment advice😃

🤔First, the conclusion: Currently, the cryptocurrency market's Shanzhai season has not restarted and remains in Bitcoin season. The reasons are as follows:

① Shanzhai Season Index (Figure 1)
The Shanzhai Season Index is the most direct indicator of market stage. Index ≥75% = Shanzhai season confirmed; <75% = Bitcoin season.
Latest index: about 43
The index has slightly rebounded recently but remains in low-level oscillation; it has not entered Shanzhai season for the past 203 days.

② Bitcoin Dominance — the core signal of capital flow (Figure 2)
BTC.D is the leading indicator of Shanzhai season: dominance decline → capital rotates from BTC to altcoins.
Current value: about 57-59.5%
Maintained at a high level since April 2026 (57-60%), slightly lower than the peak in 2025, but no obvious breakdown downward. Stablecoins account for about 10-11%, further squeezing altcoin space. This indicates capital remains highly concentrated in BTC, with overall pressure on altcoins.

③ Capital flow (Figure 3)
Mainly through BTC ETF inflows (over $56 billion accumulated since early 2026), with selective net inflows into top altcoins like ETH/SOL/XRP, but overall altcoin capital inflow is much weaker than BTC and highly concentrated.
Recent dynamics: In April, Bitcoin still led weekly inflows ($871 million), while altcoins experienced mild or slight outflows overall, indicating “risk aversion + selective rotation” rather than a full-blown Shanzhai season. This suggests capital has not yet shifted massively from BTC to broad altcoins, but rather a partial rotation among top altcoins.

④ Current market stage judgment
Cycle: After the 2024 halving, entering the late bull market/validation year in 2025, and in April 2026, still in a BTC-led “selective rotation” stage, not a full Shanzhai season. The Fear & Greed index is relatively low, BTC prices are volatile, and altcoins lack strong upward momentum.

🚀In summary: Based on the Shanzhai season index (around 43), BTC dominance (58-59%), and capital flow, the Shanzhai season has not yet restarted, and the market is still dominated by Bitcoin.