Since Wednesday, it feels like the situation has been easing, and today Israel and Lebanon have reached a temporary 10-day ceasefire agreement. Although it’s not yet truly a comprehensive ceasefire, the overall direction is moving in a positive way. You can tell from the U.S. stock market’s continued new highs that market sentiment is actually leaning optimistic.

But on the other hand, oil prices haven’t continued to fall; instead, they’re even edging up a bit. This is most likely because the information transmission has lagged, or because the market is still weighing the subsequent uncertainties. As of now, there hasn’t been any clear negative news, but if the situation keeps easing like this, a drop in oil prices is basically highly likely.

Now look at the capital flows over the past couple of days—it's pretty clear they’re more tilted toward the U.S. stock market, not the crypto market. So even if a positive development like a ceasefire comes through, the stimulus to the crypto market is limited, making it hard to directly kick off a “bull comeback.” After all, when it comes to what truly affects the crypto market, the core is still the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy; most other factors are only short-term sentiment disturbances.
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