Next week's macro outlook: The Middle East situation plunges back into an uncertain black hole, and the U.S. stock market enters earnings season

ME News update. On April 12 (UTC+8), this week’s dramatic shift in geopolitical sentiment led to sharp fluctuations in the energy and metals markets. For most of the week, the dominant logic was the easing of panic after the US and Iran reached a tentative ceasefire agreement. Crude oil became the biggest casualty under the cooling narrative. Gold also felt pressure, giving back gains after breaking through $4,850. The US Dollar Index fell below the 100 level this week, and US stocks rebounded strongly after the ceasefire news.

Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time):

Tuesday 20:30, US March PPI, Year-over-Year; US March PPI, Month-over-Month
Wednesday 01:00, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Federal Reserve Board Member Bal at a fireside chat during the work forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
Wednesday 00:45, Federal Reserve Board Member Bostic delivers opening remarks at the work forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending April 10
Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone February Industrial Production, Month-over-Month
Thursday 01:40, Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman delivers remarks at the International Finance Forum
Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve publishes the Beige Book on economic conditions
Thursday 17:00, Eurozone March CPI data
Thursday 20:30, US initial unemployment claims for the week ending April 11; April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Thursday 21:15, US March Industrial Production, Month-over-Month
Thursday TBA, the European Central Bank releases the minutes of the March 19 policy meeting
Thursday TBA, the G20 (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting will be held

Compared with the past few weeks, next week’s data calendar looks relatively light. In addition, next week marks the start of the 2026 Q1 earnings season for US stocks. Major banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley will report results first, followed by firms such as BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson. Then tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix will release data in sequence. (Source: PANews)