April 17 $BTC Market Analysis

Yesterday morning, it briefly touched around $74,786, with a slight profit-taking during the session, overall slightly up by about 0.6%-0.9% compared to the previous day, but the momentum has clearly slowed down. On April 16, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs again, and the overall sentiment for risk assets is positive. The ceasefire agreement eased geopolitical concerns, and although oil prices remain relatively high, they haven't spiraled out of control. This provides support for BTC and other "digital gold + risk assets" with dual attributes.

The core macro contradiction is that risk appetite in the stock market favors BTC, but the Federal Reserve's "data dependence" and sticky inflation limit further upside potential.

Technical:
The resistance at 75,500 that I’ve been mentioning in recent days has been tested repeatedly at this level from April 14 to now, for three days, without breaking through. This level is also just mentioned as a dividing line between bulls and bears. Currently, the daily chart direction is not a major concern; what to watch is the correction at the 4-hour and lower levels. At the 4-hour level, this position is at a high point, so a short-term pullback is likely. Meanwhile, the upward momentum on the hourly chart is gradually weakening, which means that the bears may continue to push down. Support below is still expected around 72,500 to 70,800.

In summary, at the smaller timeframes, there may be a pullback. Support is around 72,500 to 70,800. For the bulls to continue upward, they need to break through 75,500. After that, resistance is at 78,000-80,600.