Two, Geopolitics: Ceaselessly Rising Expectations for Peace Talks, Bullish Sentiment Dominates

The ongoing easing of geopolitical tensions is a key support for current bullish market sentiment.
On the 16th, Trump stated in an interview on the South Lawn of the White House that the U.S. might hold another face-to-face negotiation with Iran this weekend, and indicated that if a peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, he would consider traveling to Pakistan to sign it. He further said, "We are very close to reaching an agreement," and hopes to avoid extending the temporary ceasefire beyond two weeks, aiming to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement before it expires.
The ten-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel also took effect on Thursday, and Trump took the opportunity to say that Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons, and US-Iran talks may resume this weekend.
However, the market still needs to remain vigilant. The US-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad last Saturday did not yield breakthroughs, but both sides showed willingness to negotiate, and their positions on the ceasefire issue have come closer.
Yet, Iran's official sources have not confirmed Trump's optimistic statements.
Additionally, the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect, with only six days left until the ceasefire expires on April 22. Any sudden news could change market direction.
Impact on crypto: The market is actively pricing in "war risk premiums," risk appetite has significantly improved, and bullish sentiment is dominant.

Three, Macroeconomics: Slightly Elevated Expectations for Rate Cuts
The macro environment is providing a "tailwind" for cryptocurrencies.
Latest data shows that the core Producer Price Index (PPI) in March was 3.8%, below the expected 4.1%. This "cooling inflation" signal has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates sooner, weakening the interest rate advantage of the dollar, and global stock markets responded positively.
CME FedWatch data indicates that the market's probability of at least one rate cut in the second half of 2026 has once risen to about 60%.
However, the probability of holding rates steady at the April FOMC meeting remains high at 98.4%. The Fed's forecast still shows a median of "one rate cut" in 2026, but seven committee members already expect "zero rate cuts" in 2026.
Oil prices remain a key variable for inflation. If energy prices continue to cool, expectations for rate cuts could further increase, providing medium-term support for Bitcoin.

Four, Contracts and On-Chain Data: Increasing Bull-Bear Divergence
(1) Liquidation Data — Heavy Losses for Shorts
According to Coinglass, about $283 million in contracts were liquidated across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for approximately $122 million.
Among these, about $116 million in short positions were liquidated, providing a significant buy-side push.
Bitcoin fluctuated between $75,000 and $73,000, with a sudden downward move liquidating $283 million in futures positions.

(2) Funding Rates — Extreme Short Crowding
Latest data from Glassnode shows the seven-day average funding rate for Bitcoin is about -0.005%, one of the most pessimistic since early 2023, indicating short holders are paying long holders.
Perpetual contract funding rates once dropped to -6%, the lowest in three months, showing shorts are particularly aggressive, betting on further declines.
Shortly after, the funding rate rebounded to positive +0.0005, indicating that before closing positions, traders had accumulated bearish positions, and the upward momentum is driven by short covering rather than new longs.

(3) Exchange Inflows — Selling Pressure Accumulating
Data from Thursday shows Bitcoin's average daily inflow into exchanges rose to 2.25 BTC, the highest since July 2024, possibly indicating large holders preparing to sell.
The sharp increase in exchange inflows signals growing selling pressure, a significant short-term risk for a correction.

(4) Whale Activity — Increasing Bull-Bear Divergence
· Bullish Whales: MicroStrategy spent about $1 billion last week to buy 13,927 BTC, with an average cost of about $71,902 per BTC. Its total holdings now reach 780,897 BTC, accounting for over 3.7% of total Bitcoin supply. The company’s projected 2026 BTC yield is 5.6%, showing that Bitcoin as a reserve asset still outperforms US Treasuries in "intrinsic return."
· Bearish Whales: According to HyperInsight, an address starting with 0x469e opened 100 new BTC short positions in the past hour, increasing holdings by about $11.66 million, with a liquidation price around $158.2k. Some whales are still aggressively adding to short positions.
· Capital Divergence: Bitcoin and Ethereum are diverging; Bitcoin has risen slightly by 0.46%, while Ethereum has fallen 0.69% to $2,359.92, indicating funds are rapidly reallocating across assets rather than a unified market trend.

(5) Open Interest — Market Leverage Continues to Adjust
The total open interest in BTC across the market is about $56.5 billion, reflecting ongoing adjustments in market leverage.

Five, Technical Analysis in Detail
BTCUSDT (1-Hour Chart) — Moving Averages Converged, Direction Soon to Be Chosen
Based on the latest user screenshot data, the 1-hour chart shows:
· Current Price: around $74,877
· Moving Averages: MA7=74,930.5, MA18=74,935.3, MA60=74,635.1.
The short-term and long-term MAs are highly converged, with prices oscillating around these averages, indicating a critical point for trend direction.
The current price is slightly below MA7 and MA18, with minor resistance above.
· MACD (12,26,9): DIF=41.9, DEA=74.2, MACD Histogram=-32.3.
The fast and slow lines are in a death cross, with a negative MACD histogram, signaling short-term bearishness.
However, both lines are still above zero, so the medium-term bullish structure remains intact.
· KDJ (9,3,3): K=27.5, D=38.7, J=5.1.
K and D are in the mid-lower range, with J entering oversold territory (<20), suggesting a short-term oversold condition and potential rebound.
· RSI (6/12/24): 6-period=41.3, 12-period=48.9, 24-period=51.7.
RSI is in the neutral zone (40-50), indicating balanced momentum.
· Bollinger Bands (based on daily chart estimate): Upper band around 75,586, middle around 69,749, lower around 63,778.
Price is between the middle and upper bands.
Overall assessment: The MACD shows a death cross, KDJ is oversold, and RSI is neutral — short-term direction is unclear.
Price needs to stay above 74,900 to confirm a rebound; a drop below 74,600 could signal further weakness.

BTCUSDT (4-Hour Chart) — Consolidating to Find Direction
· Current Price: about $74,882
· Moving Averages: MA7=75,011.7, MA18=74,633.9, MA60=74,469.1.
The MAs show a bullish arrangement but with insufficient divergence; MA7 has crossed above MA18, but the price is testing MA18 support.
The price oscillates around 74,880, indicating intense battle between bulls and bears.
· MACD (12,26,9): DIF=135.2, DEA=105.2, MACD Histogram=30.0.
The lines are still in a golden cross, with positive MACD histogram, indicating ongoing bullish momentum, though the histogram is shorter than previous days, suggesting waning upward strength.
· KDJ (9,3,3): K=68.1, D=70.9, J=62.5.
The lines are rising but have formed a dead cross, signaling a short-term correction.
J remains above 50, so limited downside is expected.
· RSI (6/12/24): 6-period=52.1, 12-period=53.2, 24-period=53.6.
RSI is above 50, indicating balanced momentum with no clear trend.
· Support/Resistance:
Resistance at approximately 76,480; support at around 71,394.
The 50-period EMA (~73,000-73,500) is a key medium-term support zone.
Overall: The 4-hour MACD shows weakening bullish momentum; KDJ indicates a correction.
Key supports are at MA60 (74,469) and MA18 (74,634).
Breaking below these could test the 73,000-73,500 area.

BTCUSDT (Daily Chart) — Bullish Structure Intact but Facing Resistance
· Current Price: about $74,870
· Moving Averages: MA7=73,848.7, MA18=71,096.2, MA60=69,436.9.
The MAs are in a healthy bullish order, with MA7 crossing above MA60 to form a golden cross, indicating a medium- to long-term bullish trend.
Price remains above MA7, but the deviation is increasing, with a high divergence rate suggesting potential short-term correction.
· Bollinger Bands: Upper band around 77,104; middle around 70,441; lower around 63,778.
Price is between the middle and upper bands, with the bullish pattern still valid but facing clear resistance at the upper band.
· MACD (12,26,9): DIF=1,480.4, DEA=901.7, MACD=578.7.
The lines are diverging above zero, with a positive MACD histogram, but the histogram is shorter than previous days, indicating waning upward momentum.
· KDJ (9,3,3): K=81.6, D=80.8, J=83.1.
The lines are in overbought territory, with signs of slowing momentum and a potential reversal.
· RSI (6/12/24): 6-period=69.0, 12=63.9, 24=56.4.
RSI is near 70, indicating overbought conditions but still in the bullish zone.
· Key Resistance: 76,000–76,800 USD.
76,800 USD is the "realized price" on-chain, often limiting rebound space.
Over 77,000 USD, expect strong short-squeeze pressure.
· Key Support: 73,800 USD (around MA7), 72,500–73,000 USD (EMA50 + previous consolidation zone), 70,000 USD (psychological level).
Overall: The daily trend remains bullish, but short-term tests resistance at 76,000–76,800 USD.
Breakout could target 78,000–80,000 USD; failure to sustain above resistance could lead to a correction toward 73,000–73,800 USD.

ETHUSDT (1-Hour Chart) — Narrow Range, Unclear Direction
Based on the latest user screenshot, the 1-hour chart shows:
· Current Price: about $2,342–2,343
· Moving Averages: MA7=2,343.77, MA18=2,343.68, MA60=2,335.09.
The short-term and long-term MAs are highly converged, with prices oscillating within the band, indicating no clear trend.
Price has rebounded from below 2,300 to above the MA, showing some bullish recovery.
· MACD (12,26,9): DIF=1.56, DEA=2.31, MACD=-0.75.
The lines are in a death cross but highly converged, with the histogram near zero, suggesting a potential bullish crossover.
· KDJ (9,3,3): K=30.03, D=36.38, J=17.35.
K and D are in the mid-lower range, with J in oversold territory, indicating short-term oversold conditions and possible rebound.
· RSI (6/12/24): 47.36/50.96/51.61.
RSI is neutral, with balanced momentum.
· Support/Resistance:
Support at 2,330–2,340; resistance at 2,380–2,400.
Overall: The MACD suggests a possible bullish crossover; short-term rebound is likely if resistance at 2,350 is broken.

ETHUSDT (4-Hour Chart) — Bearish Cross, Bears in Control
· Current Price: about $2,342–2,343
· Moving Averages: MA7=2,345.97, MA18=2,335.39, MA60=2,337.02.
The MAs are intertwined, with MA7 slightly above MA18, but the signals are weak.
Price has moved above MA18 and MA60, indicating some short-term recovery.
· MACD (12,26,9): DIF=0.93, DEA=-0.37, MACD=1.31.
The lines are converging from a death cross, with the MACD histogram turning positive, signaling a potential low-level golden cross — a short-term bullish sign.
But both lines are near zero, so bullish momentum remains weak.
· KDJ (9,3,3): K=66.49, D=68.37, J=62.73.
The lines are rising but still in the mid-high range, with some fading momentum.
· RSI (6/12/24): 53.05/51.74/51.89.
RSI is above 50, indicating balanced momentum with no clear trend.
· External technical analysis: Ethereum's daily RSI is 61.57, showing buying pressure but not extreme.
Resistance at around $2,400 is critical; failure to sustain above could hinder further gains.
The 4-hour MACD remains below zero with increasing volume, and the dead cross has not reversed, indicating short-term correction risk.

Overall: The 4-hour MACD shows a low-level bullish crossover, but the moving averages face resistance at around $2,400.
First support is at $2,295–2,300 (50% Fibonacci retracement); breaking below could test $2,180–2,200.

ETHUSDT (Daily Chart) — Medium-Term Bullish Structure Intact
· Current Price: about $2,342–2,343
· Moving Averages: MA7=2,316.01, MA18=2,205.82, MA60=2,092.28.
The MAs are in a bullish order, with the price above MA7, indicating a medium-term bullish trend.
· Bollinger Bands: Upper around 2,409; middle around 2,044; lower around 1,778.
Price is between the middle and upper bands, with strong resistance at 2,400–2,410.
· MACD (12,26,9): DIF=66.70, DEA=46.76, MACD=19.94.
The lines are diverging above zero, with a positive MACD histogram, but the histogram is shorter than previous days, indicating waning upward momentum.
· KDJ (9,3,3): K=74.75, D=75.80, J=72.65.
The lines are high and flat, with no clear trend yet.
· Key Support: 2,180–2,200 USD.