Market Strategy Tips (April 15 — April 16, from yesterday to today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (April 15 — April 16), the market is in a tug-of-war phase characterized by “Federal Reserve policy duality + Middle East ceasefire negotiations expectations oscillating + US dollar and US bonds at high levels.” Gold, after hitting a historical second high of $4,870, faced resistance and pulled back, trading within a wide range around the key $4,800 level, showing increased divergence between bulls and bears at high levels, with overbought correction and support buying competing; the crypto market continued its strong upward trend, with Bitcoin stabilizing above $75,000 to reach a nearly 5-month high, leading mainstream coins to rise collectively, driven by sustained institutional inflows and short covering, with market sentiment significantly warming.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic has shifted to “Federal Reserve officials showing hawkish-dovish divergence + Middle East geopolitical uncertainty intensifying + market marginally revising rate cut expectations,” with policy debates becoming the key variable influencing asset prices. Recent speeches by Fed officials show clear divergence: Cleveland Fed President and 2026 FOMC voter Loretta Mester stated that current interest rates are appropriate and will remain unchanged for a considerable period, but with options to cut or raise rates flexibly based on inflation and economic data; former Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that a rate cut by the Fed later this year is still possible. Although oil price volatility caused by Middle East conflicts casts a shadow on policy outlook, the probability of rate hikes remains low. As a result, CME FedWatch shows a 98.4% chance of no rate change in April, 97.9% in June, and a 52% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 76% likelihood of one rate cut for the year, indicating a marginal easing of policy expectations. Regarding Middle East developments, the second round of ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the US has entered a critical window, with preliminary consensus on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire across Lebanon, but significant disagreements remain on lifting core sanctions, and conflict recurrence expectations persist. Brent crude oil remains high at $106–$108 per barrel, with lingering inflation concerns. The US dollar index remains narrow at 103.7–104.2, and 10-year US Treasury yields fluctuate between 4.21% and 4.28%, maintaining a neutral to slightly loose macro environment for non-yield assets, with global risk appetite continuing to recover.
2. Gold remains in a wide-range oscillation at historical highs, with short-term correction driven by overbought conditions and profit-taking, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical safe-haven demand. International spot gold opened yesterday at $4,795, surged to a record second high of $4,870.65, then saw profit-taking and quick retreat, currently trading at $4,822.88 per ounce, down 0.29% for the day, with a 24-hour range exceeding $75. COMEX gold futures also oscillated, peaking at $4,888 and currently at $4,835, down 0.18%. In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold main contract closed at ¥1055.72/gram, down 0.38%; Gold T+D at ¥1053.6/gram, down 0.42%; AU9999 spot at ¥1058.36/gram, up 0.30%. Mainstream retail prices for pure gold jewelry remain in the ¥1450–¥1470/gram range. The core drivers of this round of rally are: first, bearish factors dominate, with gold rebounding over 18% from March lows, RSI entering overbought territory, triggering technical correction and profit-taking; second, support at the bottom remains firm, as long-term global central bank gold purchases continue, with the World Gold Council reporting a net purchase of 228 tons in Q1, a 21% YoY increase, with 19 consecutive quarters of net accumulation, and physical demand below $4,800 remains strong; third, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East sustains safe-haven demand. On the funding side, SPDR Gold Trust increased holdings by 2.37 tons to 1,058.11 tons on April 15, continuing to accumulate, with no large-scale institutional outflows. Key support levels are $4,780–$4,800 (psychological support and key pivot), strong support at $4,720–$4,750 (breakout level and key support/resistance), with resistance at $4,870–$4,880 (intraday high) and strong resistance at $4,900.
3. The crypto market continues its strong upward trend, with Bitcoin stabilizing above $75,000 to reach a new phase high, driven by ongoing institutional inflows and short covering. Yesterday, Bitcoin opened at $71,450, then steadily surged, breaking through $72,000, $73,000, and $75,000 levels, peaking at $75,480, the highest since November 2025, and currently trading at $75,200, up over 5.8% in 24 hours. Ethereum also surged, reaching a high of $2,480, now at $2,455, up over 6.2% in 24 hours. Mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE rose over 7%, with market bullish sentiment erupting. On-chain data shows: US Bitcoin spot ETF inflows on April 15 reached $471.3 million, a five-week high, with three consecutive days of net inflows, including Fidelity FBTC and BlackRock IBIT, totaling over $380 million; Grayscale GBTC net outflows significantly narrowed, indicating institutional capital returning; MicroStrategy announced a new $1 billion issuance to buy more Bitcoin, injecting fresh funds. The 24-hour liquidation on derivatives platforms saw 96k traders wiped out, with total liquidations of $287 million, 84% of which were short positions, with short covering fueling the rally. On-chain data shows long-term Bitcoin holders now hold over 68%, a record high, with miner outflows to exchanges down 42% MoM, indicating limited selling pressure. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 62, entering greed territory, signaling market sentiment recovery. Technically, daily candles remain bullish, reinforcing the mid-term uptrend, with strong resistance at $78,000–$80,000, and support levels moving higher. Key levels: support at $74,000–$74,500 (intraday range), strong support at $72,000–$73,000 (breakout level), resistance at $76,000–$76,500, and a major resistance at $78,000 (all-time high).
Special Reminders
Gold is currently in a wide-range oscillation at historical highs, with correction needs still present after overbought conditions, compounded by Fed policy duality and Middle East volatility, significantly increasing high-level fluctuation risks. Do not blindly chase highs; resistance above $4,870 faces heavy selling pressure, and rapid corrections from profit-taking are possible. It is recommended to operate with light positions, wait for a pullback to the $4,780–$4,800 support zone to stabilize before attempting small long positions, with strict stop-loss at $4,750. Consider taking profits on rebounds above $4,870, strictly controlling positions to avoid extreme high-level volatility.
The current strong rally in crypto has broken through previous major resistance levels, with the mid-term uptrend strengthening, but market sentiment has entered greed territory. After rapid gains, technical corrections are likely, and chasing above $75,000 carries increased risk. Avoid heavy positions and “all-in” strategies at high levels; keep positions within 40%. Only consider adding on dips back to $72,000–$73,000 support after stabilization, and if prices fall below $73,000, be alert to potential deep short-term corrections, reduce positions promptly, and prioritize risk management against high-level pullbacks.