Next week's macro outlook: The Middle East situation plunges back into an uncertain black hole, and U.S. stocks enter earnings season

ME News, April 12 (UTC+8): This week saw dramatic shifts in geopolitical sentiment, driving sharp volatility across energy and metals markets. For most of the week, the dominant logic was the fading of panic after the US and Iran reached a tentative ceasefire agreement. Crude oil was the biggest casualty under the cooling narrative. Gold also felt the pressure, retreating after breaking above $4,850. This week, the US Dollar Index fell below the 100 level, and US stocks rebounded strongly following the ceasefire news.

Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all times Beijing time):

• Tuesday 20:30, US March PPI YoY; US March PPI MoM
• Wednesday 01:00, a fireside talk at the Federal Reserve Board’s work forum featuring Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Bairkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Federal Reserve Board Governor Bahl
• Wednesday 00:45, Federal Reserve Board Governor Bahl delivers opening remarks at the work forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
• Wednesday 04:30, API crude oil inventories for the week ending April 10 (US)
• Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone February industrial production MoM
• Thursday 01:40, Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman delivers remarks at the International Finance Association forum
• Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
• Thursday 17:00, Eurozone March CPI data
• Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11; April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
• Thursday 21:15, US March industrial production MoM
• Thursday TBA, the European Central Bank releases the minutes of the March 19 policy meeting
• Thursday TBA, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting is held

Compared with the previous few weeks, next week’s data calendar looks relatively light. In addition, next week the US stock market will officially enter the Q1 2026 earnings season. Major banks—including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley—will report results first. BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson will also join in. After that, technology giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix will release data in sequence. (Source: PANews)