Next week's macro outlook: The Middle East situation plunges back into an uncertain black hole, and U.S. stocks enter earnings season

ME News, April 12 (UTC+8). This week’s dramatic shift in geopolitical sentiment drove sharp volatility across the energy and metals markets. For most of the week, the dominant logic was the fading of panic after the US and Iran reached a tentative ceasefire agreement. Crude oil became the biggest casualty of the cooling narrative. Gold also felt pressure, giving back after breaking through $4,850. The US Dollar Index fell below 100 this week, and US stocks rebounded strongly following the ceasefire news.

Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times Beijing time):

Tuesday 20:30, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM
Wednesday 01:00, a fireside talk at the Federal Reserve Board work forum, with Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Federal Reserve Board Member Bal
Wednesday 00:45, Federal Reserve Board Member Bal delivers opening remarks at the work forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending April 10
Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone February industrial production MoM
Thursday 01:40, Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman speaks at the International Finance Association Forum
Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
Thursday 17:00, Eurozone March CPI data
Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Thursday 21:15, US March industrial production MoM
Thursday TBA, the European Central Bank releases minutes from the March 19 policy meeting
Thursday TBA, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, (G20)

Compared with previous weeks, next week’s data calendar looks relatively light. In addition, next week marks the start of the Q1 2026 earnings season for US stocks. Large banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others will report earnings first, followed by firms such as BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson. After that, tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix will also release data. (Source: PANews)