Next week's macro outlook: The Middle East situation plunges back into an uncertain black hole, and the U.S. stock market enters earnings season

ME News message, April 12 (UTC+8). This week’s dramatic shift in geopolitical sentiment caused sharp fluctuations in the energy and metals markets. For most of the week, the dominant logic was the easing of panic sentiment after the US-Iran reached a tentative ceasefire agreement. Crude oil became the biggest casualty under the cooling narrative. Gold also felt the pressure, giving back after breaking through $4,850. This week, the US Dollar Index fell below the 100 level, and US stocks rebounded strongly after the ceasefire news.

Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week (all times Beijing time): Tuesday 20:30, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM
Wednesday 01:00, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Federal Reserve Board Member Barr participate in a fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board’s working forum
Wednesday 00:45, Federal Reserve Board Member Barr delivers opening remarks at the working forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending April 10
Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone February industrial production MoM
Thursday 01:40, Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman delivers remarks at the International Finance Forum
Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
Thursday 17:00, Eurozone March CPI data
Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Thursday 21:15, US March industrial production MoM
Thursday TBA, the European Central Bank releases minutes of the March 19 policy meeting
Thursday TBA, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting (G20 (G20))

Compared with the previous few weeks, next week’s data calendar looks relatively light. In addition, next week, US stocks will officially enter the 2026 Q1 earnings season. Big banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley will report earnings first. BlackRock, Johnson & Johnson, and others will also join in. Then tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix will release data one after another. (Source: PANews)