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2026.04.16 Market Notes on the Pancake Circle
Consolidation doesn't mean no action; it means institutions are arbitraging, and you're anxious. Whoever can't hold back first will surrender their chips first.
Bitcoin Review
Today's Plot
• First broke through the 73,400 defense line down to 73,308, completing liquidity hunting, then pulled up to 75,426. A typical "induction - sweeping" script.
• Currently, 74,841-75,977 has become a clear supply zone (institution distribution zone).
Plot Development
• Northbound window: patiently wait for the price to retest the 73,700-74,000 area and show small-structure upward confirmation signals. This is a light position attempt point.
• Southbound alert: 73,200-73,300 is a lifeline; if the daily close effectively breaks below, it may open the door to 72,000-72,500.
Discipline
• Above 75,200, never chase highs. That is a distribution zone, not a breakout zone.
Second Bitcoin Review
Today's Performance
• Weaker, three days in a row underperforming the big brother. The 2,350-2,390 area above is under heavy pressure, now a short-term pressure zone.
Market Sentiment
• On-chain whales are still accumulating (like BitMine), but the market is short-term dominated by profit-taking emotions, showing fatigue of "weak upward momentum and smooth decline."
Plot Development
• Northbound window: focus on 2,288, waiting for clear stabilization signals.
• Critical defense line: 2,255 must not be lost; otherwise, the 2,200-2,220 zone will be tested.
At this stage, the second brother is a follower. It needs the big brother to stabilize before it has a chance.
Three days ago, the institution planted a flag at the high of 76,043. The subsequent three days of pullback and rebound have not been able to remove it. The flag is still flying, indicating that the chips at high levels have not been fully digested by the market.
Every rebound near the flag looks more like a distribution opportunity rather than a rallying call.
"A good hunter knows that most of the time is just observation. The real opportunity only quietly appears after the market has fully revealed its cards."
The above analysis is only personal review and reflection, not investment advice. The market can always exceed expectations, and stop-loss execution always takes precedence over any analysis or judgment. #加密市场回升 #btc #eth