I just saw Ripple's CEO say that the probability of the Clarity Act passing in early April has been raised to 90%. Many people are still just viewing it as news, but this is actually a watershed moment.

Thinking carefully, the true significance of this bill is not just short-term good news, but that the entire industry is shifting from "gray area innovation" to "regulated asset categories." In a word, it's about giving crypto assets official accounts.

What was the most outrageous scenario in recent years? The SEC says you're a security, the CFTC says you're a commodity, project teams don't know if they'll be sued tomorrow, exchanges could be served subpoenas at any time, and institutional compliance departments simply say "risk is uncertain" and reject investments. It's not that money doesn't want to come, but that they truly dare not.

The core of the bill actually boils down to two things. First is separation—highly decentralized projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to be classified as "digital commodities," so the SEC's sword won't swing as arbitrarily. Second is establishing rules—client assets must be segregated and held in custody, eliminating the black swan of misappropriating user funds like FTX.

You might ask why it’s taken so long? On the surface, it’s a regulatory technical issue, but in reality, it’s because banks are anxious. The real bottleneck is whether stablecoins can "generate yield." Think about it—if you convert USD into USDT and can only earn a few basis points, who still needs a bank’s 0.01% deposit interest? This isn’t a regulatory debate; it’s a deposit war. The current negotiation direction is that earning interest passively might be restricted, but actively participating in DeFi to earn yields can be preserved—both sides are stepping back.

But where is the real focus? It’s not the short-term price swings that people who don’t understand are waiting for. It’s that once the rules are clear, compliance departments of pension funds, insurance capital, and sovereign funds will be able to sign off. Over the past few years, the biggest ceiling in the crypto space wasn’t technology or narratives; it was legal uncertainty.

That’s why many people don’t understand why the market isn’t moving now. The big trend isn’t usually driven by news, but by the main players moving ahead early; news is just the stamp of approval. Those who don’t understand are waiting for confirmation; those who do understand are waiting for liquidity. Once the bill truly passes, that will be a structural change, not just short-term speculation.