Unprecedented! The U.S. prediction market trading volume is skyrocketing, approaching $1 trillion by 2030. Will this wave of "smart money" flow into $BTC and $ETH?

Market observers point out that the trading volume of the prediction market in the United States is expanding at an astonishing rate. In the first few months of this year, the total trading volume on the two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, has reached approximately $60 billion, surpassing the total of $51 billion for the entire year of 2025. Some institutions forecast that the full-year trading volume in 2026 could reach $240 billion and break the $1 trillion mark before 2030.

An analyst at an investment bank, Gautam Chhugani, wrote in a report that this year’s trading volume is expected to grow more than fourfold. He predicts that from 2025 to 2030, the market will expand at an approximate compound annual growth rate of 80%, ultimately reaching a trillion-dollar annual trading scale in the early part of the next decade.

Another major bank analyst, Julie Hoover, compared Kalshi’s growth rate to the AI boom, calling it one of the “fastest-growing non-AI companies in the U.S.” Data shows that Kalshi, which holds over 90% of the U.S. market share, has seen its weekly trading volume soar from about $10k a year ago to over $3 billion currently.

The rise of prediction markets was initially driven by the 2024 U.S. presidential election, but later, the popularity of contracts related to sports, macroeconomics, and other areas caused the trading volume in 2025 to surpass that of election years. Currently, sports contracts account for over 60% of the trading volume, but Chhugani expects this proportion to decrease to about half by 2030.

He believes that the gradual clarification of federal-level regulation is key to unlocking the market’s potential. Meanwhile, tokenization applications of blockchain technology and integration with digital currencies are significantly enhancing overall market liquidity. The structure of trading contracts will also change, with institutional markets developing around economic, commercial, and political contracts, providing investors with more direct risk exposure. Companies and insurance firms hedging specific event risks may also generate new hedging demands.

Although Kalshi and Polymarket dominate, new competitors are entering the space. Companies like Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog have already launched or initiated their own prediction market businesses. Chhugani pointed out that Robinhood and Coinbase Global are the main publicly traded targets for private prediction market companies. Robinhood’s platform, launched a year ago, has generated $350 million in annual recurring revenue, accounting for about 30% of Kalshi’s total trading volume, making it its fastest-growing business segment.

However, regulatory battles remain a major short-term uncertainty. Currently, 14 states have filed lawsuits, and four congressional bills are in progress. The core disputes include issues of insider trading. Some states claim the authority to regulate sports-betting-like activities, while the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) asserts it has exclusive regulatory authority.

Nevertheless, analysts generally believe this will not alter the long-term growth trend. The gradual clarification of the regulatory environment and increased coordination with federal agencies are seen as key factors in driving the market toward mainstream acceptance and legalization.

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