Interesting development over the weekend. Bitcoin made a sharp jump above $68 000 just a few hours after news from Iran. It is now trading around $74 000, demonstrating how volatile markets are in times of geopolitical uncertainty.

It all started with confirmation from Iranian state media about the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a result of US and Israeli airstrikes. Khamenei controlled military operations, foreign policy, and Iran’s nuclear program, so his departure creates a serious power vacuum. According to the constitution, an interim council composed of the president, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council will take over until the Assembly of Experts elects a successor, but the timeline is not specified.

Traders seem to have interpreted this as a signal for de-escalation. The logic is simple: political upheaval in leadership could increase the likelihood of a ceasefire rather than further conflict. Therefore, there was a sharp flow into risky assets, including crypto. The move from $64 000 to $68 000 occurred on very low liquidity on Sunday, which is equivalent to about $80 billion in market capitalization change in just a few hours.

However, there is a serious risk here. Iran controls about a third of the world’s crude oil exports. If markets reassess the situation as regime destabilization or disruption of supply routes along key trade routes, energy prices could soar. This would put pressure on global inflation expectations and tighten financial conditions, which typically weighs on risky assets.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump called on Iranians to overthrow the regime, calling it the only chance for generations. Tehran continues to fire rockets at Israel, with Israeli strikes in response. It remains unclear whether the period of mourning will affect the intensity of hostilities.

Separately, the story of Bitmine Immersion Technologies is interesting. The company transformed from a mining firm into a treasury fund managed with borrowed funds for Ethereum and doubled its shares over six months, attracting over $10 billion. It now owns nearly 5% of all Ether. This shows how institutional capital is beginning to seriously accumulate crypto assets, regardless of short-term volatility.

The key point now. Futures on oil and stocks will open later, and their movement will show whether optimism persists or Sunday’s rebound will be absorbed. If markets perceive continuity as a stabilizing factor, risky assets could receive further support. But if concerns about energy security start to surface, pressure could return. Currently, crypto reacts to geopolitics faster than traditional markets, but this may change.