I am currently observing how Bitcoin remains remarkably stable despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. The price is currently around $74,050, with the 24-hour balance showing a slight decrease of 0.95 percent. This is interesting considering the U.S. has just carried out airstrikes on Iran's Kharg Island.

What surprises me: the market seems to have become accustomed to these headline shocks. Two weeks ago, such an escalation would have triggered significantly more selling pressure. Now, the pattern follows: strike → short-term decline → recovery. Bitcoin initially dropped 3.5 percent on the Kharg news but then stabilized again.

The weekly balance tells a different story than the daily fluctuations. Bitcoin has increased by 2.98 percent over seven days, with Ether contributing with a 2.82 percent gain. However, Solana fell by 2.13 percent, and Dogecoin also lost 1.98 percent. BNB remained relatively stable with a plus of 0.29 percent. This shows: the market differentiates more than one might think.

The critical resistance zone remains between $73,000 and $74,000, although Bitcoin has already failed to sustainably break through this level multiple times. To me, this looks like a phase where traders are just learning to deal with the new risk scenario.

The concerning part: oil prices are climbing, energy supply is historically strained, and Trump hints that more infrastructure targets could be possible. This introduces a new variable, with Iran already threatening retaliation strikes. If oil infrastructure is actually bombed, the supply crisis could worsen dramatically.

Meanwhile, the liquidation dynamics are interesting: in the last 24 hours, $207 million worth of short positions have been liquidated compared to $163 million in longs. This suggests that the initial rise put pressure on the bears before the bad news hit the new long positions.

The real test comes next week with the Fed meeting on March 17 and 18. With oil above $100 and a war with no resolution, it will be difficult to ignore the risks of stagflation. The market still prices in interest rate cuts, which have not materialized so far. Any indication that the Fed is considering raising rates again would hit risk assets like cryptocurrencies hard, with CME FedWatch currently indicating over a 95 percent probability of holding the main interest rate steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent.

Also interesting on the side: Bitmine Immersion Technologies has rapidly transformed from a mining company into a leveraged Ethereum treasury. The company has doubled its share count in six months and raised over $10 billion, now holding nearly 5 percent of all Ether. That’s 4.87 million Ether at an average price well below the current level.

Conclusion: the market is learning to deal with uncertainty. But the next few weeks will show whether this calm persists or if new escalations will tip the fragile balance again.