The FOMC decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and market expectations for the FOMC changed dramatically. Although the probability of a rate cut in January had exceeded 40% in mid-November, it has fallen to nearly zero by the time of this week’s meeting. This is a sharp reversal in FOMC expectations.

Bitcoin has been trading around 73.74K following this decision, with sluggish movement. The optimistic view among traders from two months ago has completely disappeared, and the market was pricing in a 99% chance of no change in FOMC expectations. Short-term easing expectations have also effectively vanished.

The likelihood that rate cuts will resume at the March FOMC meeting is estimated at about 16%, and even in April, FOMC expectations are only around 30%. At Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. Eastern Time), he is expected to speak in detail about the balance between weak employment—one of the reasons for keeping rates unchanged—and inflation concerns. If the chair adopts a cautious tone, there could be short-term pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

LVRG Research’s director, Nick Lark, said that volatility is expected in the near term, citing persistent inflation concerns at the FRB. In FOMC expectations, many market participants believe that rate cuts will remain limited even after 2026, and that stance is likely to affect the Bitcoin market.

By the way, mining company Bitmine Immersion Technologies has shifted into Ethereum investment over the past six months. It holds 4.87 million ETH (about 2.32K at the current price) and has become the largest institutional ETH holder as a company. However, it posted a net loss of $3.8 billion in the quarter, with large derivative losses. Revenue from its staking business is about $11 million, but general and administrative expenses have ballooned to $75 million, putting it in a situation with challenges in its cost structure.