These days, I see a bunch of people forcefully linking ETF capital flows, the risk appetite of the US stock market, and the ups and downs of the crypto market… I’m not going to get excited first; I’ll just watch the stablecoins moving in and out and whether a few exchanges’ hot and cold wallets are shifting. If they’re not moving, I’ll just listen to the noise.

Speaking of options buyers vs. sellers, honestly, the time value is more like “rent.” If you’re a buyer, it’s like a short-term tenant who has to pay rent whether the price goes up or down today, and the longer it drags, the more painful it gets; the seller is like a landlord, collecting rent comfortably most of the time, but if a big market move kicks the door open, the losses can come very quickly. Sometimes on-chain, you can see traces of people suddenly changing positions or adding margin around key levels—that feeling is very much like “the landlord starts to worry that the tenant might cause trouble.” What I care about more now is who is continuously paying rent and who is quietly collecting rent… Let’s leave it at that for now.