Gate connects to Polymarket, reviewing today's top 5 trending prediction events

In 2026, the most attention-grabbing narrative in the crypto world is shifting from “trading assets” to “trading events.” As a leading global cryptocurrency exchange, Gate officially integrated with the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, Polymarket, in March 2026, becoming the first centralized exchange (CEX) to do so. This groundbreaking move allows over 51 million Gate users to participate in global hot event predictions with a single click.

Prediction markets are becoming one of the most watched sectors in the crypto industry in 2026. According to data from Dune Analytics, the number of monthly users on prediction markets in March 2026 increased by 118% year-over-year, reaching 865,411 people, with nominal trading volume approaching $23.89 billion. More notably, on March 27, 2026, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, completed a $1.6 billion investment in Polymarket. Wall Street broker Bernstein predicts that the trading volume of prediction markets will reach approximately $1 trillion by 2030.

Gate’s integration precisely addresses the high entry barrier of Polymarket’s native platform, bringing three core advantages to over 51 million users: seamless access to funds without managing mnemonic phrases or cross-chain bridges, direct participation using USDT from Gate spot accounts without additional gas fees; a dual trading mode that combines prediction mode for quick onboarding for beginners and trading mode offering order books, candlestick charts, and limit/market orders; simplified settlement mechanism where, after event settlement, winning profits are automatically converted 1:1 into stablecoins and transferred to spot accounts.

Below are some of the most popular prediction events on Polymarket as of today (April 15):

Probability of Israel launching strikes on Yemen sharply drops

On April 14, the probability of “Israel launching strikes on Yemen before April 30” on Polymarket fell to 14%, down 32% within 24 hours. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken hosted talks in Washington with Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors, focusing on the possibility of a ceasefire. It is reported that after President Trump pressured to de-escalate the conflict, Netanyahu agreed to push for negotiations, and the U.S. has asked Israel to suspend some military operations. As diplomatic negotiations commence, market expectations for Israel opening a new front in Yemen have significantly cooled.

Prospects for US-Iran ceasefire face divergence

On Polymarket, the market estimates a 28% chance that Trump will officially announce the end of the two-week US-Iran ceasefire before April 21, while the probability of an extended ceasefire is about 43%, indicating divergence. Previously, blockchain data showed that just hours before Trump announced the ceasefire agreement on April 7, at least 50 wallets placed large bets of “Yes” on Polymarket, totaling over $170 million, raising questions about insider trading. On April 8, the White House announced Trump ordered a two-week suspension of military actions against Iran, but negotiations failed to reach an agreement, and Trump subsequently announced the start of the Hormuz Strait blockade on April 14.

Federal Reserve’s high interest rate expectation intensifies

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in April is 99%, with only a 1% chance of a 25 basis point hike. On Polymarket, traders are betting that the Fed will not cut rates throughout 2026, with about a 36% chance. As the US-Iran conflict pushes oil prices above $110, market expectations for the Fed maintaining high interest rates are strengthening. Meanwhile, the probability of the US economy falling into recession within the year on Polymarket is about 53%, a relatively high level recently.

Prediction of Trump’s Truth Social posting volume to be revealed soon

On Polymarket, the prediction market for Trump’s total number of posts on Truth Social from April 7 to 14 this week has attracted much attention. Data shows traders are 92% confident that Trump’s posting volume will be between 120 and 139 posts this week. The results will be announced at noon today, with total trading volume reaching $337,116.

Summary

With Gate’s official integration with Polymarket, prediction markets are moving toward mainstream at an unprecedented speed. From geopolitical conflicts to macroeconomic policies and trending personalities, event-based trading is reshaping the underlying logic of the crypto market — trading is no longer limited to asset prices but extends to predicting future event outcomes. With zero-threshold fund access, dual trading modes, and simplified settlement mechanisms, Gate opens the door to prediction markets for over 51 million users. Bernstein predicts that the total trading volume of prediction markets in 2026 will reach $240 billion, a 370% increase compared to last year. As more global hot events emerge, participation opportunities in prediction markets continue to expand. Update your Gate App to the latest version now, participate in global event predictions with one click, and seize the new opportunities of the “trading events” era.