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ETH Technical Analysis:
1. Weekly Level:
1. Due to progress in Iran-U.S. negotiations and positive news catalysts, this week's candlestick currently shows a large bullish candle breaking out, forming a strong upward trend. It has already seen three consecutive bullish days from the bottom and has broken through the long-standing descending trendline resistance, forming a W-bottom pattern. The current price faces resistance at the W-bottom neckline, around 2400. If it can continue to break through the neckline, based on a 1:1 proportional upward measurement, the potential upside is around 2800. As long as the price does not fall back below the descending trendline, the bullish trend remains intact.
In terms of volume, trading volume has been decreasing weekly. Although this week's rise has not yet been accompanied by increased volume, it is still only Tuesday, and further volume confirmation is needed to prevent a false breakout.
Bollinger Bands show a downward channel with three peaks. Currently, the middle band (MA20) resistance and the neckline resistance at around 2400 are resonating.
Fibonacci levels indicate clear resistance at 0.382 at 2400, 0.5 at 2600 (resonating with the lower shadow of the pin bar), and 0.618 near 2800. The 0.236 level at 2150 can serve as a stop-loss point.
Regarding MACD, a bullish crossover below the zero line indicates a shift from bearish to bullish momentum, leaning bullish. RSI is near the oversold zone, bottoming out and rebounding upward; the last time RSI was at this level was when the price was around 1384, indicating a bullish bias. KDJ, along with the upward price movement and moving averages, is also moving quickly from the midline, showing strength.
2. Daily Level:
Yesterday's candlestick closed as a large bullish candle, driven by positive news sentiment. The key question now is whether the price can break through the 2400 neckline. There are two resistance signals above:
(1) The daily chart shows a bearish TD sequence at the 2400 resistance. In the previous cycle, the price at this level formed a TD9, leading to a significant correction.
(2) There is also a Vegas resistance on the daily chart. According to Vegas system rules, when Vegas crosses below EMA576 and 676 forming a death cross, and EMA12 crosses below Vegas confirming a true breakdown, a return to Vegas near 2500 signals a short position. Therefore, 2400 is a confluence of weekly and daily resistance. Whether it can be broken determines if the bullish trend can continue.
Support levels include the weekly descending trendline near 2200 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. For a stop-loss on long positions, 2150 is suggested; as long as it does not break below 2150, the bullish outlook remains.
Secondary indicators show RSI in the overbought zone with signs of a pullback; the last similar overbought condition saw a correction, indicating a bearish bias. KDJ also shows overbought signals with potential for a pullback, leaning bearish. MACD is oscillating without a clear direction, suggesting a higher probability of a pullback at this resistance level.
Scenario Analysis:
(1) Bullish Scenario: Price faces resistance at 2400, and due to weekly neckline resistance plus a TD9 signal on the daily chart, it pulls back as expected. If the correction stays above the weekly descending trendline and the lower boundary of the ascending channel (above 2200), it can resume upward movement, with a stop-loss at 2150.
(2) Bearish Scenario: Price at 2400 encounters a pullback, and if it breaks below 2150, it could fall back into the consolidation zone at the bottom.