Wintermute Policy Director: Negotiations are repeatedly stalled, disagreements are intensifying, and the probability of the Clarity Act passing within the year is only 30%

ME News report. On April 11 (UTC+8), Ron Hammond, policy head of crypto market maker Wintermute, said that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the “Clarity Act,” passing this year is about 30%. Although there are signs of some progress in Washington, the legislative process is still constrained by multiple factors. Hammond noted that the bill is intended to clarify how responsibilities are divided between the SEC and the CFTC in digital asset regulation, but current negotiation progress is uneven and the timetable has been postponed multiple times. Market research shows that there are still major disagreements over the bill’s passage. The primary resistance comes from traditional banking institutions, especially over the question of whether stablecoins should be eligible to generate yield—relevant compromise proposals have repeatedly been blocked. In addition, divisions within the Democratic Party, issues related to DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering, as well as potential political factors, add uncertainty to the legislation. Even so, Hammond believes there is still room to advance the bill, but whether it can be implemented within the year depends on whether key disagreements can be resolved. (Source: PANews)